Structural reliability analysis of icebreaker structure based on subset simulation method

Table 1. Bending moment distributions and parameters
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Table 1. Bending moment distributions and parameters
载荷分布类型统计量参数
静水弯矩 Normal μ = 625.93，σ = 178.84
波浪弯矩 Gumbel x_n = 757.06，λ = 53.03，k = 1
垂向冰载荷 Weibull λ = 21.05，k = 0.98，$\theta $= 1

Table 2. Uncertainty in material properties
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Table 2. Uncertainty in material properties
材料分布类型统计量参数
A Lognormal μ = 235，σ = 14.1
AH36, DH36 Lognormal μ = 355，σ = 21.3

Table 3. Computational results with variable parameters
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Table 3. Computational results with variable parameters
算例计算样本预测样本提议分布标准差失效概率相对误差/%
1 10 990 20 1.06×10⁻⁷ 31.27
2 10 990 30 2.47×10⁻⁷ 27.75
3 20 980 20 5.89×10⁻⁷ 17.20

Table 4. Computational process for Case 1

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Table 4. Computational process for Case 1

子集	迭代代数	静水弯矩/(kN·m)	波浪弯矩/(kN·m)	许用应力/MPa	最大应力/MPa	塑性应变
1	1	162.199	187.170	278.137	126.285	0
1	2	172.380	189.688	234.217	131.684	0
…	…	…	…		…	…
2	1 001	154.950	278.609	219.545	163.251	0
2	1 500	160.946	277.533	215.232	165.410	0
…	…	…	…	…	…	…
6	5 567	181.863	421.689	211.107	237.501	4.03×10⁻⁷
6	6 000	159.870	378.419	222.995	229.333	9.72×10⁻⁸

Table 5. Subset threshold of Case 1
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Table 5. Subset threshold of Case 1
子集阈值/MPa 失效样本数
MCS 141.022 0
1 156.346 0
2 169.657 0
3 183.236 3
4 201.157 24
5 215.634 107

Table 6. Icebreaker reliability computational results
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Table 6. Icebreaker reliability computational results
工况计算样本预测样本总样本总子集数失效概率P_f
航行 221 7 640 7 861 7 1.06×10⁻⁷
破冰 184 5 220 5 404 5 3.17×10⁻⁵

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Kaiwen TAO, Bin LIU. Structural reliability analysis of icebreaker structure based on subset simulation method[J]. Chinese Journal of Ship Research, 2025, 20(4): 143

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