<trans-title xml:lang="en">Analysis on early spatiotemporal transmission characteristics of COVID-19</trans-title>

Cong Wang; Jie Yan; Xu Wang; Min Li

doi:10.7498/aps.69.20200285

Acta Physica Sinica, Volume. 69, Issue 8, 080701-1(2020)

Analysis on early spatiotemporal transmission characteristics of COVID-19

Cong Wang^1,2, Jie Yan^2,3、*, Xu Wang⁴, and Min Li⁵

Author Affiliations

¹Department of Computer Science & Technology, Sichuan Police College, Luzhou 646000, China

²Institute of Sichuan Police Science, Sichuan Police College, Chengdu 610200, China

³Department of Road Traffic Management, Sichuan Police College, Luzhou 646000, China

⁴School of Movie and Media, Sichuan Normal University, Chengdu 610068, China

⁵School of Computer Science, Sichuan Normal University, Chengdu 610068, China

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Figures & Tables(9)

Fig. 1. Comparing the actual cumulative number of cases and its estimations according to different : (a) Year 2019; (b) year 2020.

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Fig. 2. Comparing the migration index of Wuhan before the spring festival with the same period of 2019: (a) Inner migration index; (b) outer migration index.

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Fig. 3. The estimation errors of the first arrival times for each provinces.

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Table 1.
The cumulative number of confirmed cases in 2019.
2019年累积发病人数
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Table 1.
The cumulative number of confirmed cases in 2019.
2019年累积发病人数
日期人数日期人数日期人数日期人数日期人数
12/09 1 12/17 12 12/21 29 12/25 47 12/29 78
12/11 2 12/18 14 12/22 37 12/26 49 12/30 90
12/12 5 12/19 16 12/23 40 12/27 59 12/31 102
12/15 8 12/20 25 12/24 45 12/28 68

Table 2.
The cumulative number of confirmed cases in each time slots in 2020.
2020年各时间段累积发病人数

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Table 2.
The cumulative number of confirmed cases in each time slots in 2020.
2020年各时间段累积发病人数

截至时点	估计发病人数		实际发病人数	上报CCDC人数
截至时点	软件抓取法	蒙特卡罗法	实际发病人数	上报CCDC人数
2019/12/31	102	49	102	0
2020/01/10	738	459	738—781	41
2020/01/20	6162	5800	6143—6187	291
2020/01/31	32661	29654	32633—32677	11821
2020/02/11	44692	69163	44672	44730

Table 3. Possible values of the infection rate.

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Table 3. Possible values of the infection rate.

截止日期	$\beta $	置信区间	R²	截止日期	$\beta $	置信区间	R²
2019/12/31	0.2213	[0.2152, 0.2274]	0.868	2020/01/11	0.2066	[0.2056, 0.2274]	0.990
2020/01/01	0.2171	[0.2116, 0.2225]	0.878	2020/01/12	0.2063	[0.2056, 0.2071]	0.993
2020/01/02	0.2168	[0.2127, 0.2209]	0.923	20200/1/13	0.2060	[0.2054, 0.2067]	0.995
2020/01/03	0.2159	[0.2127, 0.2191]	0.949	2020/01/14	0.2059	[0.2054, 0.2064]	0.997
2020/01/04	0.2155	[0.2130, 0.2179]	0.967	2020/01/15	0.2056	[0.2052, 0.2060]	0.998
2020/01/05	0.2138	[0.2118, 0.2159]	0.973	2020/10/16	0.2058	[0.2054, 0.2061]	0.998
2020/01/06	0.2127	[0.2109, 0.2144]	0.980	2020/01/17	0.2060	[0.2057, 0.2063]	0.999
2020/01/07	0.2109	[0.2093, 0.2126]	0.980	2020/01/18	0.2064	[0.2061, 0.2066]	0.999
2020/01/08	0.2091	[0.2075, 0.2107]	0.979	2020/01/19	0.2065	[0.2063, 0.2067]	0.999
2020/01/09	0.2080	[0.2067, 0.2094]	0.984	2020/01/20	0.2066	[0.2064, 0.2068]	0.999
2020/01/10	0.2067	[0.2054, 0.2080]	0.985	2020/01/21	0.2070	[0.2068, 0.2073]	0.999

Table 4.
Cumulative confirmed cases in key time nodes.
重要时间节点的累积发病人数
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Table 4.
Cumulative confirmed cases in key time nodes.
重要时间节点的累积发病人数
截至时点 $\beta $
0.2213 0.2159 0.2080 0.2066
2019/12/31 130 116 97 95
2020/01/10 1190 1001 777 753
2020/01/20 10870 8666 6220 5964

Table 5.
The Baidu inner migration index and the number of the travelers sent from Wuhan`s major railway stations.
武汉市三大火车站发送旅客人数与迁出指数

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Table 5.
The Baidu inner migration index and the number of the travelers sent from Wuhan`s major railway stations.
武汉市三大火车站发送旅客人数与迁出指数

日期	迁徙指数	人数/万	日期	迁徙指数	人数/万	日期	迁徙指数	人数/万
2020/01/10	6.6232	27	2020/01/22	11.8403	29.96	2019/01/29	7.0282	27.2
2020/01/11	7.5612	29.8	2019/01/21	4.5718	21.6	2019/01/30	7.1072	27.7
2020/01/12	6.2165	27	2019/01/22	4.6892	21.4	2019/01/31	7.4800	28.1
2020/01/13	5.7620	24.8	2019/01/23	4.8062	23	2019/02/01	8.7140	29.8
2020/01/15	5.9087	26.5	2019/01/24	4.8605	21.7	2019/02/02	9.6043	31.5
2020/01/16	6.0028	27.7	2019/01/26	7.0436	27	2019/02/03	9.2247	29.1
2020/01/19	7.4060	30	2019/01/28	6.7706	26.8

Table 6.
The arrival times of each provinces.
省级区域的首例到达时间

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Table 6.
The arrival times of each provinces.
省级区域的首例到达时间

省份	$\beta $			实际日期	省份	$\beta $			实际日期
省份	0.2213	0.2159	0.2070	实际日期	省份	0.2213	0.2159	0.2070	实际日期
安徽	01/06	01/06	01/07	01/07	辽宁	01/11	01/12	01/13	01/09
北京	01/07	01/07	01/08	01/08*	内蒙古	01/13	01/14	01/16	01/16
福建	01/09	01/09	01/10	01/06	宁夏	01/17	01/18	01/20	01/17
甘肃	01/10	01/11	01/12	01/04	青海	01/19	01/21	01/23	01/21
广东	01/05	01/05	01/06	01/04	山东	01/08	01/08	01/09	01/08
广西	01/08	01/09	01/09	01/13	山西	01/09	01/10	01/10	01/14
贵州	01/08	01/08	01/09	01/06	陕西	01/09	01/09	01/10	01/12
海南	01/10	01/11	01/12	01/13	上海	01/08	01/08	01/09	01/10
河北	01/08	01/09	01/09	01/13	四川	01/08	01/08	01/09	01/07
河南	01/04	01/04	01/05	01/03	天津	01/14	01/15	01/16	01/11
黑龙江	01/12	01/13	01/14	01/12	西藏	> 01/23	> 01/23	> 01/23	01/30
湖南	01/05	01/05	01/06	01/05	新疆	01/12	01/12	01/14	01/17
吉林	01/15	01/15	01/17	01/14	云南	01/09	01/11	01/10	01/07
江苏	01/06	01/07	01/07	01/10	浙江	01/07	01/07	01/08	01/04
江西	01/06	01/07	01/07	01/07	重庆	01/08	01/08	01/09	01/06

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Cong Wang, Jie Yan, Xu Wang, Min Li. Analysis on early spatiotemporal transmission characteristics of COVID-19[J]. Acta Physica Sinica, 2020, 69(8): 080701-1

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Paper Information

Category:

Received: Feb. 25, 2020

Accepted: --

Published Online: Nov. 24, 2020

The Author Email:

DOI:10.7498/aps.69.20200285

Topics

Nuclear physics

Particles and fields

Particle and nuclear astrophysics and cosmology

Table 1. The cumulative number of confirmed cases in 2019.2019年累积发病人数

Table 1. The cumulative number of confirmed cases in 2019.2019年累积发病人数

Table 2. The cumulative number of confirmed cases in each time slots in 2020.2020年各时间段累积发病人数

Table 2. The cumulative number of confirmed cases in each time slots in 2020.2020年各时间段累积发病人数

Table 3. Possible values of the infection rate.

Table 3. Possible values of the infection rate.

Table 4. Cumulative confirmed cases in key time nodes.重要时间节点的累积发病人数

Table 4. Cumulative confirmed cases in key time nodes.重要时间节点的累积发病人数

Table 5. The Baidu inner migration index and the number of the travelers sent from Wuhan`s major railway stations.武汉市三大火车站发送旅客人数与迁出指数

Table 5. The Baidu inner migration index and the number of the travelers sent from Wuhan`s major railway stations.武汉市三大火车站发送旅客人数与迁出指数

Table 6. The arrival times of each provinces.省级区域的首例到达时间

Table 6. The arrival times of each provinces.省级区域的首例到达时间

Table 1.
The cumulative number of confirmed cases in 2019.
2019年累积发病人数

Table 1.
The cumulative number of confirmed cases in 2019.
2019年累积发病人数

Table 2.
The cumulative number of confirmed cases in each time slots in 2020.
2020年各时间段累积发病人数

Table 2.
The cumulative number of confirmed cases in each time slots in 2020.
2020年各时间段累积发病人数

Table 4.
Cumulative confirmed cases in key time nodes.
重要时间节点的累积发病人数

Table 4.
Cumulative confirmed cases in key time nodes.
重要时间节点的累积发病人数

Table 5.
The Baidu inner migration index and the number of the travelers sent from Wuhan`s major railway stations.
武汉市三大火车站发送旅客人数与迁出指数

Table 5.
The Baidu inner migration index and the number of the travelers sent from Wuhan`s major railway stations.
武汉市三大火车站发送旅客人数与迁出指数

Table 6.
The arrival times of each provinces.
省级区域的首例到达时间

Table 6.
The arrival times of each provinces.
省级区域的首例到达时间