Simulation and construction of the glacier mass balance in the Manas River Basin, Tianshan, China from 2000 to 2016

Guining ZHAO; Zhengyong ZHANG; Lin LIU; Zhongqin LI; Puyu WANG; Liping XU

doi:10.1007/s11442-020-1766-z

Journal of Geographical Sciences, Volume. 30, Issue 6, 988(2020)

Simulation and construction of the glacier mass balance in the Manas River Basin, Tianshan, China from 2000 to 2016

Guining ZHAO¹, Zhengyong ZHANG^1、*, Lin LIU¹, Zhongqin LI^1,2, Puyu WANG², and Liping XU¹

Author Affiliations

¹. College of Sciences, Shihezi University, Shihezi 832000, Xinjiang, China

². State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, CAS, Lanzhou 730000, China

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Figures & Tables(10)

Fig. 1. Location of the Manas River Basin

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Fig. 2. Annual average temperature and annual precipitation, and monthly average temperature and precipitation in the glacier ablation period for the Manas River Basin

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Fig. 3. Interannual GMB anomalies with cumulative anomalies and the monthly GMB with runoff in the Manas River Basin

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Fig. 4. The values for the GMB in each elevation zone in the Manas River Basin

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Fig. 5. Changes for the ice and snow degree-day factors in the Manas River Basin

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Table 1.
Data sources

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Table 1.
Data sources

Category	Time	Resolution	Official website
NDVI	2000-2016	250 m × 250 m	NASA (https://www.nasa.gov/)
MOD11C3		0.05° × 0.05°
TRMM 3B43		0.25° × 0.25°
DEM	2010	30 m × 30 m	Geospatial Data Cloud (http://www.gscloud.cn/)
Temperature	2000-2016		National Meteorological Information Center (http://data.cma.cn/)
Precipitation	2000-2016
Glacier area	2006-2010		Scientific Data Center for Cold and Arid Regions (http://westdc.westgis.ac.cn/)
Snow density	2014		Document (Chenet al., 2015)
Runoff	2000-2016		Kenswat Hydrological Station

Table 2.
Coefficients and accuracy of the monthly temperature regression model

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Table 2.
Coefficients and accuracy of the monthly temperature regression model

Month	Regression factor coefficient								Accuracy
Month	λ	a	b	c	d	e	f	g	RMSE	R²
1	5.41	1.12	-0.64	-0.0020	0.210	0.0110	3.89	1.57	3.06	0.89
2	56.48	-0.47	-0.41	-0.0040	0.260	0.0101	8.97	1.38	1.78	0.94
3	121.38	-2.05	-0.26	-0.0070	0.220	0.0130	15.43	1.22	2.88	0.95
4	143.06	-2.54	-0.11	-0.0120	0.170	0.0060	6.88	0.84	1.82	0.94
5	140.79	-2.31	-0.05	-0.0100	0.170	0.0043	-1.61	0.76	1.16	0.95
6	127.95	-1.80	-0.04	-0.0130	0.136	0.0080	-4.57	0.63	1.16	0.96
7	108.19	-1.36	-0.04	-0.0130	0.120	0.0120	-5.25	0.66	1.42	0.96
8	109.65	-1.40	-0.05	-0.0130	0.120	0.0110	-5.25	0.63	1.16	0.94
9	111.77	-1.70	-0.04	-0.0090	0.160	0.0101	-3.00	0.72	1.30	0.92
10	81.19	-1.35	-0.10	-0.0058	0.208	0.0058	6.03	1.06	1.15	0.89
11	48.80	-0.57	-0.25	-0.0034	0.240	0.0110	9.49	1.18	1.27	0.90
12	51.62	0.26	-0.71	-0.0030	0.280	0.0120	-14.49	0.62	1.52	0.90

Table 3.
Coefficients and accuracy of the monthly precipitation regression model

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Table 3.
Coefficients and accuracy of the monthly precipitation regression model

Month	Regression factor coefficient								Accuracy
Month	λ	a	b	c	d	e	f	g	RMSE	R²
1	19.27	-1.15	0.34	-0.0021	0.049	0.0036	-1.86	1.15	3.69	0.74
2	42.42	-2.33	0.68	-0.0030	0.136	-0.0020	-38.85	1.18	9.31	0.76
3	-60.87	1.32	0.04	-0.0018	-0.006	0.0105	4.37	1.03	6.75	0.81
4	158.81	-4.82	0.65	-0.0113	0.108	0.0011	-29.9	1.64	10.33	0.85
5	63.84	-2.64	0.66	-0.0053	0.065	-0.0054	-24.15	1.31	13.20	0.85
6	-149.02	2.60	0.44	0.0095	-0.014	-0.0289	-19.10	1.01	14.41	0.88
7	-174.73	2.97	0.47	0.0145	0.106	-0.0261	-11.22	0.97	14.33	0.83
8	-83.76	1.29	0.26	0.0113	0.072	-0.0201	-11.61	1.11	19.69	0.84
9	-25.69	1.09	-0.27	0.0001	-0.027	0.0172	-20.52	1.51	8.43	0.82
10	38.29	0.60	-0.72	-0.0034	0.038	0.0143	-8.00	0.91	8.42	0.85
11	60.39	-1.92	0.28	-0.0047	0.035	-0.0002	-5.51	1.12	9.08	0.78
12	-4.97	-0.06	0.10	-0.0024	0.001	0.0007	-6.95	0.93	4.29	0.71

Table 4.
The GMB, glacier meltwater and recharge rates in the MRB during 2000-2016

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Table 4.
The GMB, glacier meltwater and recharge rates in the MRB during 2000-2016

Year	ELA (m)	GMB (mm.w.e.)	Glacier meltwater (10⁸ m³)	River runoff (10⁸m³)	Recharge rate of glacier meltwater
2000	4538	-545.86	3.29	16.29	0.20
2001	4550	-566.88	2.99	14.43	0.21
2002	4530	-551.41	3.51	18.74	0.19
2003	4558	-584.20	3.22	11.05	0.29
2004	4560	-620.49	3.47	12.28	0.28
2005	4532	-575.59	3.37	13.39	0.25
2006	4588	-632.19	3.63	13.18	0.28
2007	4537	-602.90	3.68	15.47	0.24
2008	4569	-624.72	3.27	13.77	0.24
2009	4507	-464.85	2.91	11.00	0.26
2010	4533	-527.05	3.36	16.62	0.20
2011	4560	-602.95	3.65	11.74	0.31
2012	4555	-597.01	3.46	12.54	0.28
2013	4553	-587.42	3.41	13.37	0.25
2014	4556	-563.95	3.21	10.65	0.30
2015	4573	-605.61	4.01	18.35	0.22
2016	4528	-558.11	3.48	15.45	0.23
Average	4549	-577.13	3.41	14.02	0.25

Table 5.
Variation of the fitting curves of the GMB with altitude in the glacier zones

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Table 5.
Variation of the fitting curves of the GMB with altitude in the glacier zones

Region	Fitting equation	Correlation
Ablation area	y1 = 2.4483x - 10729	R² = 0.927
Accumulation area	y2 = 0.1877x - 788.3	R² = 0.073
Glacier region (whole)	y3 = 1.7909x - 2522.5 (linear)	R² = 0.873
Glacier region (whole)	y4 = -0.0014x² +13.75x - 32691 (non-linear)	R² = 0.993

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Guining ZHAO, Zhengyong ZHANG, Lin LIU, Zhongqin LI, Puyu WANG, Liping XU. Simulation and construction of the glacier mass balance in the Manas River Basin, Tianshan, China from 2000 to 2016[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2020, 30(6): 988

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Paper Information

Received: Dec. 10, 2019

Accepted: Feb. 9, 2020

Published Online: Sep. 30, 2020

The Author Email: Zhengyong ZHANG (zyz0815@163.com)

DOI:10.1007/s11442-020-1766-z

Topics

Table 1. Data sources

Table 1. Data sources

Table 2. Coefficients and accuracy of the monthly temperature regression model

Table 2. Coefficients and accuracy of the monthly temperature regression model

Table 3. Coefficients and accuracy of the monthly precipitation regression model

Table 3. Coefficients and accuracy of the monthly precipitation regression model

Table 4. The GMB, glacier meltwater and recharge rates in the MRB during 2000-2016

Table 4. The GMB, glacier meltwater and recharge rates in the MRB during 2000-2016

Table 5. Variation of the fitting curves of the GMB with altitude in the glacier zones

Table 5. Variation of the fitting curves of the GMB with altitude in the glacier zones

Table 1.
Data sources

Table 1.
Data sources

Table 2.
Coefficients and accuracy of the monthly temperature regression model

Table 2.
Coefficients and accuracy of the monthly temperature regression model

Table 3.
Coefficients and accuracy of the monthly precipitation regression model

Table 3.
Coefficients and accuracy of the monthly precipitation regression model

Table 4.
The GMB, glacier meltwater and recharge rates in the MRB during 2000-2016

Table 4.
The GMB, glacier meltwater and recharge rates in the MRB during 2000-2016

Table 5.
Variation of the fitting curves of the GMB with altitude in the glacier zones

Table 5.
Variation of the fitting curves of the GMB with altitude in the glacier zones