<trans-title>Effect of maize price decline on land transfer in the North China Plain</trans-title>

年份	农户数	总面积		转入				转出				农户占比
年份	农户数	经营/亩	承包/亩	农户占比/%	总面积/亩	经营土地占比/%	户均转入面积/亩	农户占比/%	总面积/亩	承包地占比/%	户均转出面积/亩	转入意愿/%	转出意愿/%
2013	621	10951	5164	34	6239	57	27.10	13	452	9	5.45	27	26
2015	559	8503	4368	24	4904	58	36.60	33	1039	24	5.65	22	32
2017	550	7787	4542	20	4438	57	39.98	39	1193	26	5.54	13	36

Table 2. Statistics of the area of land rented in
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Table 2. Statistics of the area of land rented in
年份转入户/亩转入非粮户/亩转入种粮户/亩市场化转入种粮户/亩非市场化转入种粮户/亩
2013 27.10 38.30 20.18 29.12 5.64
2015 36.60 17.00 50.44 64.22 9.80
2017 39.98 18.30 54.80 74.37 9.80

Table 3. Definition and statistics of the variables

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Table 3. Definition and statistics of the variables

变量名称	变量定义及单位	观察数	均值	标准差	最小值	最大值
户主特征
户主年龄	户主年龄/岁	550	56.06	10.96	24	88
户主受教育年数	户主受教育年数	550	7.06	3.11	0	16
户主职业类型	农业为主=1;兼业生产=2;非农为主=3	550	1.91	0.83	0	3
家庭特征
家庭规模	家庭人口数量/人	550	4.10	1.63	1	12
非农劳动力数量	家庭非农劳动力数量/人	550	1.55	1.14	0	6
农业劳动力数量	家庭农业劳动力数量/人	550	1.54	1.07	0	4
是否有65岁以上老人	家庭是否有65岁以上老人,1=是	550	0.30	0.46	0	1
是否有在校生	家庭是否有在校生,1=是	550	0.53	0.50	0	1
是否有村干部	家庭是否有村干部,1=是	550	0.08	0.27	0	1
是否加入合作社	家庭是否有合作社,1=是	550	0.11	0.32	0	1
禀赋特征
承包土地块数	家庭承包土地地块数	550	2.51	1.51	0	8
承包土地面积	家庭承包土地面积/亩	550	8.26	8.86	0.00	95.00
村庄特征
当地经济水平	所在村除样本农户外的平均年收入/万元	550	7.82	2.34	4.02	14.91
土地调整政策	土地是否30年不调整,1=是	550	0.69	0.46	0	1
与最近乡镇距离	居住地与最近乡镇距离/km	550	5.81	5.47	0	25.00

Table 4. Impacts of maize price on farmers’ land renting willingness and behaviors

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Table 4. Impacts of maize price on farmers’ land renting willingness and behaviors

变量	转入意愿		转入决策		转出意愿		转出决策
变量	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)	(8)
玉米价格	2.452***		1.290***		-1.320**		-2.278***
	(0.711)		(0.419)		(0.526)		(0.881)
粮食平均价格		4.012***		2.909***		-1.806*		-3.222*
		(1.209)		(0.942)		(1.088)		(1.717)
户主年龄	-0.069*	-0.070	-0.096*	-0.094*	0.084	0.091	0.286***	0.309***
	(0.041)	(0.043)	(0.054)	(0.049)	(0.061)	(0.069)	(0.070)	(0.075)
户主年龄平方	0.000	0.000	0.001	0.001	-0.000	-0.001	-0.002***	-0.002***
	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.000)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)
户主受教育年数	0.015	0.026	0.105**	0.112**	0.036	0.032	0.001	-0.001
	(0.025)	(0.027)	(0.042)	(0.044)	(0.042)	(0.042)	(0.052)	(0.050)
户主职业类型	-0.036	-0.068	-0.900***	-0.914***	0.225	0.238	0.410*	0.417**
	(0.162)	(0.162)	(0.209)	(0.211)	(0.159)	(0.160)	(0.218)	(0.212)
家庭规模	0.210*	0.167*	-0.021	-0.041	0.031	0.039	-0.010	-0.008
	(0.109)	(0.100)	(0.089)	(0.088)	(0.088)	(0.085)	(0.103)	(0.095)
非农劳动力数量	-0.127	-0.105	0.011	0.016	0.024	0.017	0.105	0.094
	(0.122)	(0.118)	(0.101)	(0.105)	(0.124)	(0.123)	(0.141)	(0.138)
农业劳动力数量	0.449**	0.503**	0.529***	0.565***	-0.867***	-0.893***	-1.640***	-1.679***
	(0.211)	(0.197)	(0.169)	(0.167)	(0.170)	(0.163)	(0.228)	(0.218)
是否有65岁以上老人	-0.270	-0.276	-0.425**	-0.431**	0.377	0.362	0.636*	0.607*
	(0.278)	(0.270)	(0.195)	(0.195)	(0.276)	(0.276)	(0.364)	(0.365)
是否有在校生	-0.016	-0.013	0.224	0.244	-0.124	-0.117	0.118	0.137
	(0.200)	(0.203)	(0.208)	(0.210)	(0.231)	(0.226)	(0.284)	(0.277)
是否有村干部	0.708	0.685	-0.433	-0.404	0.085	0.080	-0.293	-0.321
	(0.576)	(0.556)	(0.413)	(0.412)	(0.331)	(0.327)	(0.321)	(0.305)
是否加入合作社	0.107	0.170	1.079***	1.138***	0.610*	0.575	1.032	0.982
	(0.312)	(0.316)	(0.396)	(0.388)	(0.333)	(0.350)	(0.735)	(0.724)
承包土地块数	-0.039	-0.015	-0.162***	-0.154**	0.273***	0.249***	0.324***	0.285***
	(0.110)	(0.108)	(0.062)	(0.063)	(0.077)	(0.074)	(0.104)	(0.098)
承包土地面积	0.012	0.010	0.004	0.004	0.010	0.011	0.017	0.020
	(0.014)	(0.013)	(0.012)	(0.012)	(0.023)	(0.023)	(0.026)	(0.026)
当地经济水平	-0.057	-0.144	-0.123	-0.185	0.324*	0.385**	0.362	0.463**
	(0.106)	(0.113)	(0.164)	(0.173)	(0.175)	(0.179)	(0.221)	(0.230)
土地调整政策	1.950	1.974	-0.645	-0.776	1.550	1.564	1.887	2.029
	(1.463)	(1.427)	(1.524)	(1.547)	(0.984)	(0.966)	(1.476)	(1.549)
与最近乡镇距离	0.009	0.030	-0.081*	-0.078*	0.033	0.023	0.026	0.017
	(0.089)	(0.096)	(0.047)	(0.047)	(0.044)	(0.046)	(0.065)	(0.070)
乡镇差异	已控制	已控制	已控制	已控制	已控制	已控制	已控制	已控制
常数项	-5.294	-8.372**	2.392	-0.717	-6.062**	-5.316	-10.543***	-9.413**
	(3.366)	(3.901)	(2.162)	(2.551)	(2.370)	(3.247)	(3.170)	(4.235)
观察数	1730	1730	1730	1730	1730	1730	1730	1730
农户数	621	621	621	621	621	621	621	621

Table 5. Regression results of farming households’ area of land rented in

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Table 5. Regression results of farming households’ area of land rented in

变量	划分标准1				划分标准2
	转入面积		净流转面积		转入面积		净流转面积
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)	(8)
市场化转入种粮	50.543***	96.172***	50.195***	92.669***	61.835***	114.843***	59.631***	113.648***
	(14.020)	(31.545)	(14.050)	(31.616)	(15.777)	(36.099)	(15.813)	(36.178)
非市场化转入种粮	24.805	41.731	28.542	53.693	10.452	15.655	14.775	20.058
	(21.434)	(39.716)	(21.479)	(39.805)	(17.442)	(33.953)	(17.482)	(34.027)
转入非粮	17.354	30.367	13.277	17.811	18.239	31.527	14.174	19.047
	(12.848)	(31.389)	(12.875)	(31.460)	(12.772)	(31.190)	(12.802)	(31.258)
价格	-0.303	1.790	0.837	2.998	-0.239	1.183	0.890	2.350
	(2.505)	(4.797)	(2.510)	(4.808)	(2.490)	(4.773)	(2.495)	(4.783)
价格×市场化转入种粮	-20.016***	-41.135***	-19.803***	-39.390**	-22.179***	-46.585***	-20.743**	-45.805**
	(7.247)	(15.412)	(7.262)	(15.447)	(8.456)	(17.919)	(8.475)	(17.959)
价格×非市场化转入种粮	-7.731	-15.434	-9.290	-20.814	-1.562	-4.025	-3.611	-5.968
	(11.008)	(19.101)	(11.032)	(19.144)	(8.853)	(16.358)	(8.874)	(16.394)
价格×转入非粮	3.094	-3.467	5.660	3.014	2.993	-3.624	5.575	2.864
	(6.540)	(15.069)	(6.554)	(15.103)	(6.499)	(14.975)	(6.514)	(15.008)
农户特征	已控制	已控制	已控制	已控制	已控制	已控制	已控制	已控制
常数项	0.917	-2.790	-0.306	-3.960	-4.618	-6.375	-5.439	-7.128
	(12.899)	(15.618)	(12.926)	(15.653)	(12.852)	(15.511)	(12.882)	(15.544)
观察数	1730	1730	1730	1730	1730	1730	1730	1730
R²	0.103	0.102	0.113	0.112	0.113	0.112	0.122	0.122

Table 6. Regression results of the proportion of non-grain crop planting area of farming households

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Table 6. Regression results of the proportion of non-grain crop planting area of farming households

变量	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)
转入			0.435***	0.730***
			(0.092)	(0.207)
价格	0.110***	0.209***	0.140***	0.256***
	(0.022)	(0.042)	(0.025)	(0.048)
价格×转入			-0.180***	-0.309***
价格×转入			(0.048)	(0.100)
农户特征	已控制	已控制	已控制	已控制
常数项	-0.280**	-0.486***	-0.410***	-0.664***
	(0.128)	(0.149)	(0.128)	(0.155)
观察数	1730	1730	1730	1730
R²	0.126	0.126	0.159	0.156

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Qian WANG, Jin YU. Effect of maize price decline on land transfer in the North China Plain[J]. Resources Science, 2020, 42(9): 1668

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Paper Information

Received: Oct. 15, 2019

Accepted: --

Published Online: Apr. 23, 2021

The Author Email: YU Jin (yujin@nwsuaf.edu.cn)

DOI:10.18402/resci.2020.09.03

Topics

Resource Economy

Research Articles

Table 1. Structure of the samples

Table 1. Structure of the samples

Table 2. Statistics of the area of land rented in

Table 2. Statistics of the area of land rented in

Table 3. Definition and statistics of the variables

Table 3. Definition and statistics of the variables

Table 4. Impacts of maize price on farmers’ land renting willingness and behaviors

Table 4. Impacts of maize price on farmers’ land renting willingness and behaviors

Table 5. Regression results of farming households’ area of land rented in

Table 5. Regression results of farming households’ area of land rented in

Table 6. Regression results of the proportion of non-grain crop planting area of farming households

Table 6. Regression results of the proportion of non-grain crop planting area of farming households