NUCLEAR TECHNIQUES, Volume. 45, Issue 12, 120602(2022)
Analysis and prediction of nuclear power plant operation events based on ARIMA-LSTM model
Figures & Tables(7)
Table 1. ARIMA model parameter estimation
View tableView in ArticleTable 1. ARIMA model parameter estimation
ARIMA model AR1 AR2 AR3 MA1 MA2 AIC R2 ARIMA (3, 1, 2) 1.256 3 -0.477 6 -0.132 7 -1.997 0 0.998 9 243.94 0.542 ARIMA (3, 1, 1) 0.526 8 -0.082 9 -0.250 4 -1.000 0 — 243.76 0.475 ARIMA (2, 1, 2) 1.352 7 -0.624 0 — -1.992 6 0.999 6 242.20 0.504 ARIMA (2, 1, 1) 0.561 1 -0.205 0 — -1.000 0 — 242.53 0.417
Table 2. Predicted values of operation events from 2019 to 2021
View tableView in ArticleTable 2. Predicted values of operation events from 2019 to 2021
年份
Year
预测值
Predicted values
95%置信区间
95% CI
2019 28.02 （-3.843 962, 59.888 68） 2020 21.46 （-13.263 979, 56.189 37） 2021 20.06 （-14.526 518, 54.653 04）
Table 3. Model evaluation parameters
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模型Model MSE RMSE MAPE ARIMA 234.92 15.32 36.5% ARIMA-LSTM 223.94 14.96 33.6%
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Qinmai HOU, Wei ZHU, Xiang ZOU, Shixian LIU, Yannong WU. Analysis and prediction of nuclear power plant operation events based on ARIMA-LSTM model[J]. NUCLEAR TECHNIQUES, 2022, 45(12): 120602
Paper Information
Category: Research Articles
Received: Apr. 20, 2022
Accepted: --
Published Online: Jan. 3, 2023
The Author Email: ZHU Wei (zhuwei@chinansc.cn)
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