Resources Science, Volume. 42, Issue 4, 696(2020)
Figures & Tables(6)
Fig. 2. Marginal effect of explicit and implicit abandonment of cultivated land
Fig. 3. Predicted values of probabilities of cultivated land abandonment and cultivated land use behaviors in different provinces
Table 1. Variable selection and definition
View tableView in ArticleTable 1. Variable selection and definition
类型 变量 定义 均值 标准差 因变量 y 退耕=1;显性撂荒=2;隐性撂荒=3;转出耕地=4;正常耕种=5（参照组）;转入耕地=6 4.027 1.316 核心变量 耕地投入产出 x 1农户承包耕地总面积/亩 6.187 7.635 x 2从事自家农业劳动人口总数/人 0.581 0.720 x 3耕地种植种子、农药、化肥投入资金/元,取对数 5.949 3.070 x 4种植业雇佣劳动力费用/元,取对数 0.946 2.397 x 5耕地灌溉费用/元,取对数 1.335 2.571 x 6租用机械所需费用/元,取对数 1.093 2.459 x 7耕地种植所需其他费用/元,取对数 0.947 2.239 x 8农户持有机械的总价值/元,取对数 1.493 2.391 x 9家庭出售与自家消耗农副产品总值之和/元,取对数 5.117 4.377 政策特征 x 10家庭是否领取退耕还林补贴：是=1,否=0 0.061 0.238 x 11家庭是否领取农业补贴：是=1,否=0 0.625 0.484 x 12家庭是否经历土地征用：是=1,否=0 0.037 0.189 控制变量 家庭特征 x 13家庭成员打工、工资、经营、转移和财产收入/元,取对数 9.096 2.601 x 14家庭人口总数/人 4.299 1.848 户主特征 x 15户主的健康程度打分分为7级,其中0.9为非常健康,0.8为很健康,0.7为比较健康,0.6为一般,0.5为比较不健康,0.4为不健康,0.3为非常不健康 0.706 0.174 x 16户主是否参加技能培训：是=1,否=0 0.015 0.120 x 17户主年龄/岁,取对数 3.922 0.231 x 18户主是否为男性：是=1,否=0 0.812 0.391 x 19户主的教育年限/年 4.723 4.423 x 20户主是否为非农户口：是=1,否=0 0.051 0.219 村庄特征 x 21是否是丘陵：是=1,否=0 0.319 0.466 x 22是否是除平原或丘陵以外的其他地貌：是=1,否=0 0.345 0.475 x 23村庄与最近的集镇距离交通（步行、骑行、乘车等）所需时间/h 12.260 49.999 x 24村庄是否属于矿区：是=1,否=0 0.163 0.369 x 25是否遭受自然灾害：是=1,否=0 0.496 0.500 x 26是否是旅游景区：是=1,否=0 0.047 0.211
Table 2. Results of multivariate logistics model of cultivated land utilization behaviors
View tableView in ArticleTable 2. Results of multivariate logistics model of cultivated land utilization behaviors
层次 变量 退耕 显性撂荒 隐性撂荒 耕地转出 耕地转入 回归系数 边际效应 回归系数 边际效应 耕地投入产出 x 1-0.808*** 0.006 0.009*** -0.014*** 0.001 0.009 -0.024*** (0.160) (0.011) (0.001) (0.004) (0.001) (0.008) (0.007) x 2-0.767*** 0.243 0.017*** -0.019 0.005 -0.466*** 0.137*** (0.284) (0.186) (0.004) (0.036) (0.005) (0.087) (0.040) x 3-1.005*** -2.211*** -0.033*** -0.521*** -0.048*** -0.833*** 0.369*** (0.068) (0.093) (0.002) (0.019) (0.002) (0.028) (0.040) x 40.352** -2.615*** -0.064*** -0.074*** -0.001 -0.006 0.044*** (0.150) (0.207) (0.005) (0.009) (0.002) (0.019) (0.009) x 50.162 -2.415*** -0.057*** -0.032*** 0.007*** -0.054** -0.009 (0.176) (0.191) (0.005) (0.009) (0.002) (0.023) (0.012) x 60.456*** -2.685*** -0.068*** 0.039*** 0.014*** 0.087*** -0.001 (0.151) (0.240) (0.006) (0.008) (0.002) (0.018) (0.010) 耕地投入 产出 x 70.322** -2.794*** -0.068*** -0.054*** 0.003** 0.006 0.0165* (0.164) (0.158) (0.004) (0.009) (0.002) (0.021) (0.010) x 8-0.541*** -1.312*** -0.024*** 0.046*** 0.015*** -0.148*** 0.080*** (0.055) (0.062) (0.001) (0.009) (0.001) (0.022) (0.011) x 9-0.407*** -3.337*** -0.074*** 0.086*** 0.026*** 0.068*** -0.034*** (0.039) (1.008) (0.023) (0.012) (0.004) (0.014) (0.009) 政策特征 x 10-2.810*** 0.042 0.028*** -0.199** -0.007 -0.588*** -0.267** (0.561) (0.221) (0.004) (0.077) (0.009) (0.160) (0.126) x 11-0.198 -0.367*** -0.007*** -0.093* -0.015*** 0.221*** 0.025 (0.124) (0.108) (0.002) (0.048) (0.006) (0.083) (0.052) x 120.669*** 0.917*** 0.010*** 0.356*** 0.046*** 0.316* -0.452*** (0.243) (0.240) (0.004) (0.098) (0.013) (0.174) (0.162) 家庭特征 x 130.017 -0.043* -0.001*** -0.018*** -0.003 0.0460*** 0.008 (0.033) (0.023) (0.000) (0.007) (0.001) (0.016) (0.009) x 140.039 0.007 0.000 -0.009 0.000 -0.091*** 0.006 (0.031) (0.027) (0.001) (0.011) (0.001) (0.025) (0.016) 户主特征 x 151.561*** -0.196 -0.020*** -0.107 -0.011 -0.332* -0.041 (0.304) (0.248) (0.005) (0.106) (0.013) (0.186) (0.167) x 160.500 0.534 0.002 0.097 -0.007 0.697*** 0.037 (0.368) (0.401) (0.007) (0.179) (0.022) (0.266) (0.164) x 170.349 0.077 -0.005 0.061 0.008 0.476*** -0.531*** (0.267) (0.213) (0.004) (0.083) (0.010) (0.183) (0.114) x 18-0.672*** -0.143 0.006** -0.031 -0.002 -0.208** 0.228** (0.138) (0.121) (0.002) (0.046) (0.006) (0.087) (0.099) x 19-0.003 -0.005 0.000 0.005 0.001 0.017* -0.007 (0.014) (0.013) (0.000) (0.004) (0.001) (0.009) (0.006) x 200.251 0.145 -0.001 0.074 0.010 0.157 -0.246* (0.278) (0.178) (0.005) (0.103) (0.013) (0.149) (0.137) 村庄特征 x 21-0.335* 0.206* 0.010*** -0.014 -0.003 -0.174 0.236** (0.174) (0.123) (0.003) (0.060) (0.007) (0.121) (0.109) x 22-0.202 0.218 0.010*** -0.065 -0.003 -0.327** 0.055 (0.174) (0.136) (0.003) (0.065) (0.008) (0.129) (0.094) x23 -0.001 0.001 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.002 0 (0.001) (0.001) (0.000) 0.000 (0.000) (0.001) (0.001) x24 -0.528** -0.119 0.002 -0.082 -0.010 0.187 -0.137 (0.208) (0.164) (0.003) (0.073) (0.009) (0.125) (0.090) x25 1.074*** 0.396*** -0.008*** 0.383*** 0.036*** 0.610*** -0.061 (0.139) (0.107) (0.002) (0.054) (0.006) (0.099) (0.070) x26 -0.383 -0.382 -0.004 -0.119 -0.007 -0.12 -0.236* (0.402) (0.294) (0.007) (0.131) (0.016) (0.234) (0.132) Constant 0.691 2.938*** 0.231 -1.826** -2.320*** (1.207) (0.927) (0.372) (0.766) (0.554) Pseudo R 2=0.360 伪似然对数=-21997.965
Table 3. Regression coefficients and marginal effect of cultivated land use behaviors and household agricultural labors
View tableView in ArticleTable 3. Regression coefficients and marginal effect of cultivated land use behaviors and household agricultural labors
人口（ x 2）样本量 退耕 显性撂荒 隐性撂荒 耕地转出 耕地转入 系数 边际效应 系数 边际效应 系数 边际效应 系数 边际效应 系数 边际效应 1 9459 -0.480 -0.011* 0.211 0.004* 0.148*** 0.011*** -0.382*** 0.027*** 0.064 0.004*** (0.373) (0.006) (0.309) (0.005) (0.043) (0.006) (0.094) (0.006) (0.055) (0.005) 2 1728 -21.850*** -0.038*** -0.332 0.080*** -2.572*** 0.037*** -1.516** -0.167 0.412*** 0.080 (0.413) (0.001) (0.531) (0.014) (0.454) (0.006) (0.599) (0.013) (0.101) (0.014) 3 275 -19.810*** -0.038*** 2.273*** 0.045*** -22.070*** 0.058*** -21.02*** -0.196*** 0.107 0.045*** (0.438) (0.001) (0.411) (0.023) (0.151) (0.002) (0.208) (0.004) (0.190) (0.023) 4 102 -20.360*** -0.038*** 1.824*** 0.180*** -22.120*** 0.056*** -21.15*** -0.196*** 0.993*** 0.180*** (0.650) (0.001) (0.564) (0.044) (0.222) (0.003) (0.364) (0.004) (0.251) (0.044) 5 16 -20.470*** -0.038*** -15.170*** 0.032*** -22.360*** -0.068*** -20.910*** -0.196*** -0.0189 0.032*** (1.038) (0.001) (0.777) (0.071) (0.413) (0.001) (0.458) (0.004) (0.608) (0.071) 6 1 -18.550*** -0.038*** -16.770*** -0.116*** -23.420*** -0.068*** -22.130*** -0.196*** -25.010*** -0.116*** (1.475) (0.001) (1.170) (0.005) (1.016) (0.001) (1.013) (0.004) (0.970) (0.005) 8 1 -15.240*** -0.038*** -2.200 -0.116 -23.290*** 0.016*** -21.620*** -0.196*** -24.620*** -0.116*** (1.800) (0.001) (4.231) (0.005) (1.020) (0.092) (1.022) (0.004) (0.997) (0.005)
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Beibei GUO, Yelin FANG, Yinkang ZHOU.
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Received: Jul. 26, 2019
Accepted: --
Published Online: Apr. 15, 2021
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