Journal of Natural Resources, Volume. 35, Issue 3, 713(2020)
Dynamic pricing mechanism of regional water option trading considering random rainfall forecast: A case study of Guangdong province
Fig. 2. Flow diagram of water rights transaction based on option theory
Fig. 3. Statistical diagram of rainfall information in Guangdong province
Fig. 5. Strategic diagram of trading on the maturity date of water options
Table 1. Classification of typical rainfall scenarios
View tableView in ArticleTable 1. Classification of typical rainfall scenarios
序号 级别 降雨量区间/mm 状态预测结果 最终结果 1 (干旱) 枯水年 X <X minP 1=X 1PK =X 1+X 22 (偏旱) X min<X <X min+S P 2=X 23 (正常) 平水年 X min+S <X <X min+2S P 3=X 3PP =X 34 (偏涝) 丰水年 X min+2S <X <X min+3S P 4=X 4PF =X 4+X 55 (洪涝) X >X maxP 5=X 5
Table 2. Classification of rainfall state and statistical table of forecast result
View tableView in ArticleTable 2. Classification of rainfall state and statistical table of forecast result
序号 级别 降雨量区间/mm 状态预测结果 最终结果 1 (干旱) 枯水年 X <1576.6P 1=0.2563PK =0.41012 (偏旱) 1576.6< X <1762.7P 2=0.15383 (正常) 平水年 1762.7< X <1948.8P 3=0.3077PP =0.30774 (偏涝) 丰水年 1948.8< X <2134.9P 4=0.1027PF =0.28225 (洪涝) X >2134.9P 5=0.1795
Table 3. Annual income and expenditure of the inhabitants in Guangdong province
View tableView in ArticleTable 3. Annual income and expenditure of the inhabitants in Guangdong province
项目 2013年 2014年 2015年 2016年 2017年 可支配收入 29537.3 32148.1 34757.2 37684.3 40975.14 生活消费支出 21621.5 23611.7 25673.1 28613.3 30197.92 食品 7254.0 7850.2 8533.4 9421.6 9711.65 衣着 1283.2 1344.7 1453.7 1583.4 1587.10 居住 4939.56 5243.07 5668.3 6361.79 7078.86 生活用品及服务 1235.2 1365.1 1526.3 1721.9 1782.84 交通通信 3139.0 3625.4 3905.0 4198.1 4285.55 教育文化娱乐 2315.6 2468.4 2671.5 3103.4 3284.28 医疗保健 793.6 988.3 1096.4 1304.5 1503.56 其他用品和服务 613.0 678.1 771.4 870.1 915.10 水费支出 45.88 46.39 47.41 48.42 48.78
Table 4. Parameter estimation results based on ELES model
View tableView in ArticleTable 4. Parameter estimation results based on ELES model
项目 αi βi R 2F P 生活消费支出 0.993 438.112 0.000 食品 610.372 0.227 0.973 109.543 0.002 衣着 417.267 0.030 0.933 41.675 0.008 居住 -832.607 0.191 0.984 186.861 0.001 生活用品及服务 -251.094 0.051 0.971 99.036 0.002 交通通信 347.558 0.099 0.922 35.662 0.009 教育文化娱乐 -404.733 0.009 0.973 109.670 0.002 医疗保健 -1004.331 -0.061 0.995 640.025 0.000 其他用品和服务 -206.202 0.028 0.979 141.003 0.001 水费支出 37.785 0.000274 0.968 90.456 0.002
Table 5. Water expenditure as a proportion of living expenditure and disposable income
View tableView in ArticleTable 5. Water expenditure as a proportion of living expenditure and disposable income
指标 2013年 2014年 2015年 2016年 2017年 水费支出占生活消费支出的百分比/% 0.22 0.21 0.18 0.17 0.16 水费支出占可支配收入的百分比/% 0.16 0.15 0.14 0.13 0.12 水费的需求收入弹性/% 0.176 0.190 0.201 0.213 0.230
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Hao XU, Gang LIU. Dynamic pricing mechanism of regional water option trading considering random rainfall forecast: A case study of Guangdong province[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2020, 35(3): 713
Received: Jan. 2, 2019
Accepted: --
Published Online: Sep. 25, 2020
The Author Email: Gang LIU (lglhm@msn.com)
