Underwater polarized light with certain distribution characteristics is formed when sunlight is scattered by the atmosphere and refracted by the surface of the water. The polarization distribution pattern of the underwater polarized light can be used in navigation. In this paper, an air-water model is proposed to calculate the polarization pattern of sky light under varying wave conditions and simulate the underwater polarization distribution pattern under the influence of wave refraction. Distribution images are simulated for underwater polarization degree and polarization angle in conditions with calm water, sinusoidal waves and random waves with different solar altitude angles. The results are verified using underwater experiments. The comparison of the polarization distribution pattern under the waves with that under the calm water show that the proposed model can accurately characterize the characteristics of the polarization distribution pattern under typical wave surfaces, providing a theoretical basis for improving the environmental adaptability of underwater polarization navigation under fluctuating water surface conditions.