Acta Physica Sinica, Volume. 69, Issue 9, 090202-1(2020)
Fig. 1. (a) Daily new cases simulated versus reporting; (b) daily reporting rate
Fig. 2. Curves of daily confirmed cases and instantaneous reproductive number of the top 20 countries with the most cumulative cases
Fig. 3. Curves of daily confirmed cases and instantaneous reproductive number of the 21st − 40th countries with the most cumulative cases.
Table 1. The formula of the basic reproduction number
under different models or distributions.View tableView in ArticleTable 1. The formula of the basic reproduction number
under different models or distributions.模型或分布 公式 参数介绍 $\rm {SIR}$ $ {\cal{R} }_{0}=1+ {r}/{b} $ r为增长率, b为移出率 ${\rm {SEIR}}$ ${\cal{R} }_{0}=\left(1+ {r}/{b_1}\right)\left(1+ {r}/{b_2}\right)$ $b_1, $ $ b_2$ 多阶段暴露 与感染模型 ${\cal{R} }_{0}=\dfrac{\left(1+\dfrac{r}{b_1}\right)^x}{\displaystyle\sum\limits_{i=1}^{y}\left(1+\dfrac{r}{b_2}\right)^{-i} }$ $b_1, $ $b_2$ 感染 y阶段移出率 正态分布 ${\cal{R} }_{0}=\exp\left(rT_{\rm c}-\dfrac{1}{2}r^2\sigma^2\right)$ $T_{\rm c}$ $\sigma$ 德尔塔分布 ${\cal{R} }_{0}={\rm e}^{rT_{\rm c}}$ $T_{\rm c}$ 经验分布 ${\cal{R} }_{0}=\dfrac{r}{\displaystyle\sum\limits_{i=1}^{n}y_i\dfrac{ {\rm e }^{-ra_{i-1} }-{\rm e}^{-ra_i} }{a_i-a_{i-1} } }$ ai与 $y_i$
Table 2. Summary of the basic reproduction number
for COVID-19.View tableView in ArticleTable 2. Summary of the basic reproduction number
for COVID-19.地点 ${\cal{R}}_0$ 置信区间 截止时间 计算方法 参考文献 注: 表2 —表4 中参考文献数据均来自国家卫健委、湖北卫健委、中国CDC等网站及已发表文献.武汉市 2.2 [1.40, 2.20] 2020/01 临床诊断推断 [ 2 ]武汉市 2.68 [2.47, 2.86] 2020/01/28 MCMC [ 3 ]武汉市 4.08 — 2020/01/26 有效再生数 ${\cal{R}}_{\rm{e}}$ [ 5 ]武汉市 3.0 [0.75, 7.80] 2020/01/24 统计推断 [ 16 ]武汉市 6.47 [5.71, 7.23] 2020/01/15 统计推断 [ 17 ]武汉市 2.56 [2.49, 2.63] 2020/01/24 极大似然 [ 18 ]武汉市 2.3 — 2020/01/24 有效再生数 ${\cal{R}}_{\rm{e}}$ [ 19 ]武汉市 2.23 [1.77, 3.00] 2020/01/24 有效再生数 ${\cal{R}}_{\rm{e}}$ [ 20 ]武汉市 7.05 [6.11, 8.18] 2020/02/08 最大似然 [ 21 ]湖北省 2.56 [4.70, 6.60] 2020/01/25 SEIR仓室模型 [ 22 ]武汉市 2.24 [1.96, 2.25] 2020/01/24 极大似然 [ 23 ]
Table 3. Summary of the incubation period for COVID-19.
View tableView in ArticleTable 3. Summary of the incubation period for COVID-19.
点估计 置信区间 分布形式 截止时间 估计方法 参考文献 注: M: n表示均值是n天, Me: n表示中位数是n天. 表4 含义表示相同.M: 5.2 [4.1, 7.0] 指数增长 2020/01/22 — [ 1 ]M: 6.4 [5.6, 7.7] 威布尔 2020/01/29 贝叶斯 [ 6 ]M: 5.0 [4.2, 6.0] 对数正态 2020/01/23 最优化 [ 7 ]Me: 5.2 [4.4, 6.0] 对数正态 2020/01/30 最优化 [ 7 ]Me: 4.0 — 经验分布 2020/01/29 非参数估计 [ 11 ]
Table 4. Summary of the serial interval for COVID-19.
View tableView in ArticleTable 4. Summary of the serial interval for COVID-19.
时间/d 置信区间 截止时间 估计方法 参考文献 M: 7.5 [5.3, 19.0] 2020/01 最优化 [ 1 ]M: 4.41 — 2020/02/02 最优化 [ 24 ]M: 4.7 [3.7, 6.0] 2020/02 最优化 [ 25 ]
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Ying-Ke Li, Shi Zhao, Yi-Jun Lou, Dao-Zhou Gao, Lin Yang, Dai-Hai He.
Received: Mar. 14, 2020
Accepted: --
Published Online: Nov. 26, 2020
The Author Email: Dai-Hai He (daihai.he@polyu.edu.hk)
