A theoretical method based on the diffractive theory is used for predicting three-dimensional (3D) focusing performances of the compound X-rays refractive lenses (CRLs). However, the derivation of the 3D intensity distribution near focus for the X-ray refractive lenses is quite complicated. In this paper, we introduce a simple theoretical method that is based on the first and second moments in the theory of probability. As an example, the 3D focusing performance of a CRL with Si material is predicted. Moreover, the results are compared with those obtained by the diffractive theory. It is shown that the method introduced in this paper is accurate enough.