Laser & Optoelectronics Progress, Volume. 62, Issue 5, 0525001(2025)

Power Prediction of Ultra-Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Generation Based on Multi-Feature Fusion

Pengfa Zang1、*, Keqi Wang1, Zhongwei Zhang2, Zhongyang Zhao1, Longchao Yao1, Weiguo Weng3, Xuecheng Wu1, Chenghang Zheng1,3, and Xiang Gao1,3
Author Affiliations
  • 1State Key Laboratory of Clean Energy Utilization, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310027, Zhejiang , China
  • 2Dongfang Electric Yangtze River Delta (Hangzhou) Innovation Research Institute Co., Ltd., Hangzhou 310019, Zhejiang , China
  • 3Jiaxing Research Institute, Zhejiang University, Jiaxing 314001, Zhejiang , China
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    High-precision photovoltaic power prediction is one of the key technologies for the efficient use of solar power generation. To satisfy the requirements of high-precision photovoltaic power prediction, an ultra-short-term photovoltaic power generation power prediction method based on multi-feature extraction is proposed. Firstly, the relative position relationship between the sun and photovoltaic array is analyzed, and the irradiance mechanism model of the inclined surface of the photovoltaic (PV) module is established. Secondly, considering the influence of the temperature change of the PV module backsheet and attenuation of module efficiency on the photovoltaic power generation, the deep neural network and convolutional neural network are used to extract the temperature characteristics of the module backsheet at each time and slow time-varying characteristics of the photovoltaic array, respectively. Finally, considering the timing correlation of photovoltaic power generation, the long short-term memory neural network is used to extract the dynamic time series features of the data. Based on the collected historical power generation power and historical meteorological data, the input of the prediction model is constructed via the established multiple feature extraction modules, and the prediction value of photovoltaic power generation power is obtained in the next 15 min to 4 h via the multi-layer neural network. Considering a photovoltaic power station in Zhejiang province as an example for ultra-short-term photovoltaic power generation power prediction, among the prediction results of each model, the prediction accuracy of the photovoltaic power generation power prediction model based on multi-feature extraction is higher than that of other comparison models. Furthermore, the monthly average accuracy can reach 97.13%, which verifies the effectiveness of the proposed prediction method.

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    Pengfa Zang, Keqi Wang, Zhongwei Zhang, Zhongyang Zhao, Longchao Yao, Weiguo Weng, Xuecheng Wu, Chenghang Zheng, Xiang Gao. Power Prediction of Ultra-Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Generation Based on Multi-Feature Fusion[J]. Laser & Optoelectronics Progress, 2025, 62(5): 0525001

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    Paper Information

    Category: OPTOELECTRONICS

    Received: May. 30, 2024

    Accepted: Aug. 7, 2024

    Published Online: Mar. 14, 2025

    The Author Email:

    DOI:10.3788/LOP241387

    CSTR:32186.14.LOP241387

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