Analyzing the main influencing factors of the construction industry in the Yellow River Basin and scientifically predicting future carbon emission trends is an important part of achieving ecological protection and high-quality development in this region. The panel data of nine provinces (autonomous regions) in the Yellow River Basin from 2005 to 2021 were selected to analyze the influencing factors based on the extended STIRPAT model, and the forecast models were established to analyze the carbon emission trends under various scenarios. The results show that the total population, urbanization rate, total output value of the construction industry, per capita disposable income, and carbon emission intensity promote the growth of carbon emissions. Conversely, the energy structure inhibits the growth of carbon emissions. Although carbon emissions vary across different scenarios, all scenarios indicate the attainment of carbon peak by 2030. Notably, the scenario of maintaining stable population and economic development together with rapid technological advancements has the most significant carbon reduction effect, which is most conducive to the green and low-carbon development of the Yellow River Basin.