Due to specific geographical and climatic factors Xi'an faces relative scarcity of water resources with a considerable amount of precipitation resources being inefficiently conserved and consequently lost each year Understanding the trends in the functionality of water conservation and its influencing factor is crucial for Xi'an to overcome water resource challenges and enhance ecological security To address this the present study utilized the InVEST model to assess the spatial characteristics of water conservation in the urban area for the years 2010 and 2020 analyzing the trends in variation Additionally the FLUS model was employed to predict land water conservation for the year 2030 under both natural development and ecological conservation scenarios with subsequent analysis The results indicate the following Firstly the FLUS model demonstrated high accuracy with an OA value of 0 91 and a Kappa coefficient of 0 87 showcasing its applicability to Xi'an Secondly from 2010 to 2020 urban and rural ecological green spaces constituting 48 97% to 49 03% of the total area contributed to 71 93% to 73 68% of the city's water conservation exerting the most significant impact among all land-use types The disparity in urban and rural ecological green space orea proportions with 2 99% to 3 13% in the northern plains and 83 18% to 83 46% in the southern mountainous region resulted in a spatial pattern of water conservation characterized by “lower in the north higher in the south” Thirdly during the period from 2010 to 2020 Xi'an experienced a decrease of 4 24 billion cubic meters in land water conservation with a 67 15% contribution from the reduction in forest area by 38 94 km² and an increase in grassland area by 20 19 km² Lastly under the natural development scenario the total water conservation in 2030 increased by 5 25 billion cubic meters for the entire city while under the ecological conservation scenario an additional 7 million cubic meters were conserved Simultaneously the proportions of forest grassland and water bodies increased restraining the expansion of impermeable surfaces This research holds significance in providing valuable insights for Xi'an to formulate rational urban and rural ecological green space planning strategies to address water-related ecological issues