Laser & Optoelectronics Progress, Volume. 61, Issue 15, 1520001(2024)

Method for Distributed Photovoltaic Short-Term Power Prediction Based on Weather Change Adaptive Fractal and Matching

Junxiong Ge1, Guowei Cai1, Liu Jiang2、*, Zhenjiang Pang3, Tongwei Yu4, and Wubowen Zhao2
Author Affiliations
  • 1School of Electric Engineering, Northeast Electric Power University, Jilin 132012, Jilin, China
  • 2School of Information, Shenyang Institute of Engineering, Shenyang 110136, Liaoning, China
  • 3Shenzhen Guodian Technology Communication Co., Ltd., Shenzhen 518000, China
  • 4Electric Power Research Institute of State Grid Liaoning Electric Power Co., Ltd., Shenyang 110055, Liaoning, China
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    In recent years, the country has vigorously promoted distributed photovoltaic power generation, and accurate and reliable photovoltaic power prediction is essential to ensure large-scale distributed photovoltaic integration into the power grid. The current distributed photovoltaic power prediction methods have not fully considered the impact of meteorological factors, making it difficult to improve prediction accuracy. To address the above issues, a distributed photovoltaic short-term power prediction method based on adaptive classification and matching of weather change processes is proposed. First, scenario partitioning of weather processes is achieved through K-Medoids-Grey, and then the convolutional neural network is optimized using an improved multiverse algorithm to achieve short-term prediction of distributed photovoltaics. Taking a distributed photovoltaic user in Gansu province, China as an example for verification. The results show that in the test set, the prediction accuracy of the IMVO-CNN method under clustering is 9.83 percentage points higher than that under non clustering, verifying the effectiveness of the method.

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    Junxiong Ge, Guowei Cai, Liu Jiang, Zhenjiang Pang, Tongwei Yu, Wubowen Zhao. Method for Distributed Photovoltaic Short-Term Power Prediction Based on Weather Change Adaptive Fractal and Matching[J]. Laser & Optoelectronics Progress, 2024, 61(15): 1520001

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    Paper Information

    Category: Optics in Computing

    Received: Jul. 5, 2023

    Accepted: Aug. 30, 2023

    Published Online: Aug. 8, 2024

    The Author Email: Liu Jiang (jl986872796@126.com)

    DOI:10.3788/LOP231662

    CSTR:32186.14.LOP231662

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