Journal of Southeast University (Medical Science Edition), Volume. 44, Issue 3, 460(2025)

Changing trend and prediction analysis of premature mortality rates from major chronic diseases in Yixing from 2015 to 2021

HU Jing, MIN Yixuan, ZHANG Sichen, REN Lulu, GU Jiachang, and QIAO Jianjian
Author Affiliations
  • Yixing Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Yixing 214200, China
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    ObjectiveTo analyze the premature mortality rates and changing trends of four major chronic diseases (include cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, cancers, diabetes, and chronic respiratory diseases) in Yixing City, Jiangsu Province from 2015 to 2021, providing evidence and direction for formulating policies to prevent and control major chronic diseases.MethodsThe death surveillance information of registered residents in Yixing City was sourced from the “Wuxi National Health Information Platform”, and the registered population data were obtained from the Wuxi Public Security Bureau. Mortality rates, premature mortality rates, and constituent ratios were calculated. The Joinpoint regression model was used to caculate the average annual percent of change, and the premature death probabilities of these four major chronic diseases in 2030.ResultsThe standardized mortality rate of the four major chronic diseases among registered residents aged 30-69 in Yixing City decreased from 155.56 per 100 000 in 2015 to 140.95 per 100 000 in 2021, and the premature mortality rate of major chronic diseases decreased from 9.35% in 2015 to 8.36% in 2021, both showing a decreasing trend year by year. The proportion of premature deaths from major chronic diseases in the total number of premature deaths increased from 75.49% in 2015 to 77.58% in 2021. It is predicted that the probability of premature death among women will be 3.97% in 2030, and the probabilities of premature death among men and the entire population will be 9.20% and 6.58% respectively.ConclusionAlthough the premature deaths from the four major chronic diseases in Yixing City are at a relatively low level, they are still the main cause of premature deaths among registered residents. High-risk screening and comprehensive prevention and control of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, and diabetic populations should be focused on, and male populations should be the key targets for intervention.

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    HU Jing, MIN Yixuan, ZHANG Sichen, REN Lulu, GU Jiachang, QIAO Jianjian. Changing trend and prediction analysis of premature mortality rates from major chronic diseases in Yixing from 2015 to 2021[J]. Journal of Southeast University (Medical Science Edition), 2025, 44(3): 460

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    Paper Information

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    Received: Mar. 9, 2025

    Accepted: Aug. 26, 2025

    Published Online: Aug. 26, 2025

    The Author Email:

    DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1671-6264.2025.03.016

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