Taking the replacement rate of aeolian sand, water-binder ratio, fiber volume ratio and sand-binder ratio as the research variables, the early shrinkage performance of aeolian sand polyvinyl alcohol fiber reinforced cementitious composite (PVA-FRCC) specimens was studied through the shrinkage test of 14 groups of aeolian sand PVA-FRCC specimens. The results show that with the increase of the replacement rate of aeolian sand, water-binder ratio and sand-binder ratio, the shrinkage of aeolian sand PVA-FRCC increases, and the shrinkage of the substrate decreases after the incorporation of fibers, but the further increase of the fiber volume ratio has no obvious effect on reducing the shrinkage. Taking shrinkage strain, compressive strength, ultimate tensile strain and fluidity as indexes, the comprehensive evaluation method was used to comprehensively evaluate the performance of PVA-FRCC of aeolian sand. According to the classification of general engineering, high fluidity, low shrinkage and high toughness, the better mix ratio to meet the needs of different engineering applications was proposed. Finally, the CEB-FIP model is modified, and an early shrinkage estimation model of PVA-FRCC for aeolian sand considering the influence of various factors is proposed. The calculated values of the model are in good agreement with the experimental values, which can be used for early shrinkage estimation and shrinkage cracking risk prediction of PVA-FRCC for aeolian sand.