In order to improve lightning protection measures for ships, it is vital to evaluate the lightning strike risk and lightning rod protection effect.

This paper proposes a leader development model that can simulate the natural leader progression, and introduces a ship model to analyze its lightning attachment process. Analyses are made of the electric field distribution on the surface of the ship when the downward leader is approaching at different areas, of the probability of the ship being struck by lightning at each location, and of the protection effect of the lightning rod on the ship. Finally, the calculation results are verified by a ship scaled-down model discharge test carried out in the laboratory.

The lightning strike attachment point is mainly concentrated in the relatively protruding position of the structure on the ship, and the lightning rod has a positive effect on the potential distribution on the surface of the ship. However, the final lightning strike point is determined by the development area of the downward leader.

Combining simulation analysis with the test results, the weak points of direct lightning protection on the surface of the ship are obtained. It is found that the location of the final lightning strike attachment point of the ship is closely related to the connection process of the by-directional leaders, and that the proposed leader progression model can provide accurate predictions of lightning strike points.