<trans-title>The spatio-temporal characteristics of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area's population aging and its economic effects</trans-title>

Qiong LI; Songlin LI; Lanlan ZHANG; Hao LI; Yi LIU

doi:10.11821/dlyj020200360

Geographical Research, Volume. 39, Issue 9, 2130(2020)

The spatio-temporal characteristics of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area's population aging and its economic effects

Qiong LI^1,2, Songlin LI¹, Lanlan ZHANG³, Hao LI⁴, and Yi LIU^5、*

Author Affiliations

¹Business School of Jishou University, Jishou 416000, Hunan China

²Jishou University Academician Workstation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Jishou 416000, Hunan China

³School of Economics and Management, Changsha University of Science and Technology, Changsha 410000, China

⁴School of Accounting, Hunan University of Technology and Business, Changsha 410205, China

⁵Academy of Great Bay Area Studies, Guangzhou 510070, China

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Figures & Tables(15)

Fig. 1. Population aging trends in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, Guangdong Province, and China from 1990 to 2015

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Fig. 2. Per capita GDP trend of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area from 1990 to 2015

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Fig. 3. Evolution of the spatial pattern of aging coefficients in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area in 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2015

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Fig. 4. Evolution of the spatial pattern of per capita GDP in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area in 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2015

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Fig. 5. LISA clustering chart of per capita GDP of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area in 2015

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Table 1. Aging coefficient and population age structure (%)
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Table 1. Aging coefficient and population age structure (%)
老龄化系数(P) 人口结构类型老龄化系数(P) 人口结构类型
P < 4.0 年轻型 7~10 老年型I期
4.0~5.5 成年型I期 10~14 老年型II期
5.5~7.0 成年型II期 P≥14.0 老年型III期

Table 2. Evolution of population age structure in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area from 1990 to 2015

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Table 2. Evolution of population age structure in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area from 1990 to 2015

	1990年	2000年	2010年	2015年
深圳	年轻型	年轻型	年轻型	年轻型
东莞	成年型I期	年轻型	年轻型	年轻型
惠州	成年型II期	成年型II期	成年型II期	成年型II期
中山	成年型II期	成年型I期	成年型I期	成年型II期
佛山	成年型II期	成年型I期	成年型I期	成年型II期
珠海	成年型I期	成年型I期	成年型I期	成年型II期
广州	成年型II期	成年型II期	成年型II期	老年型I期
肇庆	成年型II期	老年型I期	老年型I期	老年型II期
澳门	成年型II期	老年型I期	老年型I期	老年型I期
江门	老年型I期	老年型I期	老年型I期	老年型II期
香港	老年型I期	老年型II期	老年型II期	老年型III期
区域平均	成年型II期	成年型II期	成年型II期	老年型I期
全国	成年型II期	老年型I期	老年型I期	老年型II期

Table 3. [in Chinese]

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Table 3. [in Chinese]

地区	1990年		2000年		2010年		2015年
地区	人均GDP	老龄化系数	人均GDP	老龄化系数	人均GDP	老龄化系数	人均GDP	老龄化系数
广州	1038	6.30	3095	6.10	12918	6.67	21860	7.92
佛山	869	6.77	2443	5.25	11863	5.25	17383	6.79
肇庆	325	6.23	896	7.86	4134	9.08	7812	10.2
深圳	1321	2.22	3961	1.23	13929	1.79	25359	2.90
东莞	950	4.99	1652	2.09	7799	2.29	12137	3.74
惠州	418	5.94	1676	6.23	5709	5.91	10631	6.55
珠海	1057	4.62	3354	4.03	11505	5.01	20026	6.64
中山	733	6.28	1821	4.62	8980	4.43	15093	5.73
江门	509	7.94	1552	8.66	5262	9.08	7963	11.39
香港	13110	8.46	25319	10.94	32550	13.08	42430	15.29
澳门	10041	6.59	14879	7.08	52650	7.38	70795	8.98
区域平均	3070	6.56	5609	5.64	12980	5.96	20509	7.37

Table 4. Moran ’s I test results of the global per capita GDP of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area
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Table 4. Moran ’s I test results of the global per capita GDP of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area
Moran’s I E(I) SD Z值 P值
0.2681 -0.0233 0.1045 2.7832 0.0170

Table 5. Regression results of the impact of population aging on economic growth in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area

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Table 5. Regression results of the impact of population aging on economic growth in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area

被解释变量：ln Y
Variable	OLS	SEM	SAR
Constant	-11.4904***(1.93)	-13.4848***(1.45)	-11.1651***(1.81)
p	-0.0343**(0.02)	-0.0291**(0.01)	-0.0284*(0.02)
ln K	0.5694***(0.10)	0.5799***(0.08)	0.5519***(0.10)
ln L	1.5501***(0.18)	1.7165***(0.13)	1.3829***(0.20)
Rho	—	—	0.1468(1.17)
Lambda	—	-0.5047**(0.20)	—
Adj-R-squared	0.7955	—	—
AIC	23.7043	19.9447	24.6494
SC	30.8411	27.0815	33.5703
Log likelihood	-7.8522	-5.9723	-7.3247

Table 6. Model regression results under economic distance weight matrix and geographical distance weight matrix

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Table 6. Model regression results under economic distance weight matrix and geographical distance weight matrix

被解释变量：ln Y
Variable	经济距离权重		地理距离权重
Variable	SEM	SAR	SEM	SAR
Constant	-15.7945***(2.46)	-10.7587***(1.66)	-11.4904***(1.90)	-22.2587***(2.03)
p	-0.0449***(0.01)	-0.0459***(0.01)	-0.0343**(0.02)	-0.0350**(0.02)
lnK	0.5545***(0.08)	0.548***(0.08)	0.5694***(0.10)	0.5815***(0.09)
lnL	1.5381***(0.15)	1.5185***(0.15)	1.5501***(0.17)	1.5828***(0.17)
Rho	—	-0.3146***(0.10)	—	0.9091***(0.06)
Lambda	-0.3006***(0.10)	—	1.1000***(0.07)	—
Adj-R-squared	—	—	—	—
AIC	18.7555	18.8029	22.2710	24.2710
SC	29.4607	29.5080	29.4077	33.1919
Log likelihood	-3.3778	-3.4015	-7.1355	-7.1355

Table 7. Evolution of the age structure of Hong Kong's population from 1990 to 2018

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Table 7. Evolution of the age structure of Hong Kong's population from 1990 to 2018

年份	老龄化系数(%)	类型	人均GDP(美元)	年份	老龄化系数(%)	类型	人均GDP(美元)
1990	8.46	老年型I期	13110	2005	12.25	老年型II期	26093
1991	8.73	老年型I期	14955	2006	12.43	老年型II期	27697
1992	9.00	老年型I期	17356	2007	12.61	老年型II期	29902
1993	9.25	老年型I期	19659	2008	12.69	老年型II期	30871
1994	9.51	老年型I期	21673	2009	12.89	老年型II期	30696
1995	9.78	老年型I期	22765	2010	13.08	老年型II期	32550
1996	10.12	老年型II期	24702	2011	13.31	老年型II期	35142
1997	10.42	老年型II期	27169	2012	13.70	老年型II期	36732
1998	10.66	老年型II期	25507	2013	14.27	老年型III期	38403
1999	10.93	老年型II期	24713	2014	14.71	老年型III期	40315
2000	10.94	老年型II期	25319	2015	15.29	老年型III期	42430
2001	11.22	老年型II期	24771	2016	15.85	老年型III期	43735
2002	11.52	老年型II期	24120	2017	16.43	老年型III期	46221
2003	11.82	老年型II期	23293	2018	16.99	老年型III期	48672
2004	12.07	老年型II期	24454

Table 8. ADF unit root test

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Table 8. ADF unit root test

变量	ADF检验	各显著性水平的临界值
变量	ADF检验	0.01	0.05	0.10
lnY	-2.4939	-4.6679	-3.7332	-3.3103
D(lnY)	-3.4700	-3.9591	-3.0810	-2.6813
lnK	-2.6971	-4.8000	-3.7912	-3.3423
D(lnK)	-7.6940	-4.8000	-3.7912	-3.3423
lnL	-1.9862	-4.6679	-3.7332	-3.3103
D(lnL)	-4.0244	-3.9591	-3.0810	-2.6813
O	-2.1373	-4.6679	-3.7332	-3.3103
D(O)	-2.8201	-4.7283	-3.7597	-3.3249
D(D(O))	-5.3735	-4.0044	-3.0989	-2.6904

Table 9. Johansen cointegration test results
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Table 9. Johansen cointegration test results
假设条件 Eigenvalue Trace Statistic 5% Crititical Value Prob.
None 0.9827 99.2744 47.8561 0.0000
At most 1 0.9094 42.4794 29.7971 0.0011
At most 2 0.3907 8.8550 15.4947 0.3790

Table 10. regression results of the impact of population aging on economy

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Table 10. regression results of the impact of population aging on economy

Variable	Coefficient	Std.Error	t-statistic	Prob.
Constant	-27.3322	4.7933	-5.7022	0.0001
lnL	2.4437	0.4038	6.0521	0.0001
D(p)	-0.4053	0.1842	-2.2004	0.0481
lnK	1.0160	0.1315	7.7271	0.0000
R-squared	0.9010	Mean dependent var		12.3441
Adjusted R-squared	0.8763	S.D. dependent var		0.1869
S.E. of regression	0.0657	Akaike info criterion		-2.3937
Sum squared resid	0.0519	Schwarz criterion		-2.2005
Log likelihood	23.1496	Hannan-Quinn criter.		-2.3838
F-statistic	36.4117	Durbin-Watson stat		2.0637
Prob(F-statistic)	0.0000
Sample(adjusted):1997:2012

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Qiong LI, Songlin LI, Lanlan ZHANG, Hao LI, Yi LIU. The spatio-temporal characteristics of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area's population aging and its economic effects[J]. Geographical Research, 2020, 39(9): 2130

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Paper Information

Received: May. 6, 2020

Accepted: --

Published Online: Apr. 23, 2021

The Author Email: LIU Yi (liuy@igsnrr.ac.cn)

DOI:10.11821/dlyj020200360

Topics

Resource Economy

Research Articles

Table 1. Aging coefficient and population age structure (%)

Table 1. Aging coefficient and population age structure (%)

Table 2. Evolution of population age structure in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area from 1990 to 2015

Table 2. Evolution of population age structure in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area from 1990 to 2015

Table 3. [in Chinese]

Table 3. [in Chinese]

Table 4. Moran ’s I test results of the global per capita GDP of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area

Table 4. Moran ’s I test results of the global per capita GDP of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area

Table 5. Regression results of the impact of population aging on economic growth in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area

Table 5. Regression results of the impact of population aging on economic growth in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area

Table 6. Model regression results under economic distance weight matrix and geographical distance weight matrix

Table 6. Model regression results under economic distance weight matrix and geographical distance weight matrix

Table 7. Evolution of the age structure of Hong Kong's population from 1990 to 2018

Table 7. Evolution of the age structure of Hong Kong's population from 1990 to 2018

Table 8. ADF unit root test

Table 8. ADF unit root test

Table 9. Johansen cointegration test results

Table 9. Johansen cointegration test results

Table 10. regression results of the impact of population aging on economy

Table 10. regression results of the impact of population aging on economy