Journal of Natural Resources, Volume. 35, Issue 6, 1460(2020)

Multi-risk assessment of agrometeorological disasters based on a three-level hierarchical framework

Xiang WANG and Jian-jun HUAI*
Author Affiliations
  • School of Economics and Management, Northwest A&F University, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, China
  • show less
    Figures & Tables(7)
    A three-level hierarchical framework for assessing agrometeorological disasters
    Trends of rate and intensity of various disasters in Shaanxi province from 1980 to 2015
    Analysis of causal matrices for floods, droughts, hail and freezing disasters
    Bayesian network model diagram
    • Table 1. Variable selection and definition

      View table
      View in Article

      Table 1. Variable selection and definition

      变量名变量定义
      自然资本有效灌溉面积率省有效灌溉面积/khm2/省农作物种植面积/khm2
      农作物种植面积实际播种或移植有农作物的面积/khm2
      物质资本农业机械总动力用于农业的各种动力机械的动力总和/104 kW
      农村用电量为农村居民生活服务的各种用电量/108 kWh
      农用氮肥施用折纯量用于农业生产的氮肥数量/104 t,施用量要求按折纯量计算
      农用磷肥施用折纯量用于农业生产的磷肥数量/104 t,施用量要求按折纯量计算
      农用钾肥施用折纯量用于农业生产的钾肥数量/104 t,施用量要求按折纯量计算
      农用复合肥施用折纯量用于农业生产的复合肥数量/104 t,施用量要求按折纯量计算
      金融资本农村居民家庭人均纯收入按农村人口平均的农民纯收入/¥
      农业GDP以货币形式表现的农业全部产品的总量/108 ¥
      人力资本乡村男性从业人员在农村工作的男性人员数量/104
      乡村女性从业人员在农村工作的女性人员数量/104
      暴露暴露指数某种灾害年灾害率与平均灾害率的比值减1
      敏感性敏感性指数某种作物年产量与平均产量的比值减1
      脆弱性脆弱性指数敏感性指数与暴露指数的比值
      灾害特征灾害率某种灾害的受灾面积/khm2/农作物总耕作面积/khm2
      灾害强度某种灾害的成灾面积/khm2/受灾面积/khm2
      灾害情况灾害发生情况灾害发生为1,不发生为0
      作物产量减产比例[正常年份作物产量(0.5 kg)-灾害发生年份作物产量(0.5 kg)]/正常年份作物产量(0.5 kg)
    • Table 2. Bayesian network model conditional probability

      View table
      View in Article

      Table 2. Bayesian network model conditional probability

      节点父节点条件概率=1
      Y=1Y=2Y=3Y=4Y=5
      洪涝减产比例Y0.010.030.050.010.07
      旱灾洪涝减产比例Y0.230.230.080.080.02
      无洪涝减产比例Y0.080.530.450.430.33
      霜冻旱灾减产比例Y0.070.120.110.070.19
      无旱灾减产比例Y0.050.430.520.610.52
      连阴雨霜冻减产比例Y0.160.100.060.150.14
      无霜冻减产比例Y0.020.100.080.180.28
      风灾旱灾减产比例Y0.070.060.100.050
      无旱灾减产比例Y0.030.200.050.030.05
      冰雹霜冻减产比例Y00.030.020.030
      无霜冻减产比例Y0.010.080.160.110.02
    • Table 3. BHM model results

      View table
      View in Article

      Table 3. BHM model results

      脆弱性生计资本
      X1X2X3X4X5X6X7X8X9X10
      粮食洪涝
      干旱
      风雹
      冷冻



      -0.18*



      -0.18*


      18.85*
      -0.36*



      -0.33**



      0.45*
      小麦洪涝
      干旱
      风雹
      冷冻


      -33.59*


      30.01*
      谷子洪涝
      干旱
      风雹
      冷冻



      0.75*



      -0.48*

      58.05*



      -1.24*



      -1.10*



      1.10*
      大豆洪涝
      干旱
      风雹
      冷冻

      -2.88*

      -0.50.

      -2.63*

      0.69**

      -6.64*
      28.13*
      -1.38*
      4.48*
    Tools

    Get Citation

    Copy Citation Text

    Xiang WANG, Jian-jun HUAI. Multi-risk assessment of agrometeorological disasters based on a three-level hierarchical framework[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2020, 35(6): 1460

    Download Citation

    EndNote(RIS)BibTexPlain Text
    Save article for my favorites
    Paper Information

    Received: Apr. 11, 2019

    Accepted: --

    Published Online: Oct. 17, 2020

    The Author Email: HUAI Jian-jun (h2009j.happy@163.com)

    DOI:10.31497/zrzyxb.20200617

    Topics