The cooperative and conflictual interactions between the United States, Russia, and China: A quantitative analysis of event data

Lihua YUAN; Changqing SONG; Changxiu CHENG; Shi SHEN; Xiaoqiang CHEN; Yuanhui WANG

doi:10.1007/s11442-020-1808-6

Journal of Geographical Sciences, Volume. 30, Issue 10, 1702(2020)

The cooperative and conflictual interactions between the United States, Russia, and China: A quantitative analysis of event data

Lihua YUAN1... Changqing SONG1,2,*, Changxiu CHENG1,2, Shi SHEN1,2, Xiaoqiang CHEN1 and Yuanhui WANG1 |Show fewer author(s)

Author Affiliations

¹Center for GeoData and Analysis, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China

²State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China

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Figures & Tables(9)

Fig. 1. Numbers and scales of cooperation and conflict between the three dyads in two periods(Note: The ratio in Figures 1b and 1d denotes the ratio of absolute scales of conflict to cooperation between dyad countries.)

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Fig. 2. Goldstein scales of conflict and cooperation between the USA and Russia in 2001.10-2016.12 period

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Fig. 3. The log-log plot of CCDF of the absolute cooperative and conflictual scales between the USA and China (Note: USA-CHN and CHN-USA mean the scales sent from the USA to China and those from China to the USA, respectively.)

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Fig. 4. The log-log plot of CCDF of the absolute cooperative and conflictual scales between the USA and Russia (Note: USA-RUS and RUS-USA mean the scales sent from the USA to Russia and those from Russia to the USA, respectively.)

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Fig. 5. The log-log plot of CCDF of the absolute cooperative and conflictual scales between Russia and China (Note: RUS-CHN and CHN-RUS mean the scales sent from Russia to China and those from China to Russia, respectively.)

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Table 1.
Descriptions of the monthly time-series variables

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Table 1.
Descriptions of the monthly time-series variables

Dyads	Direction	Variables	Descriptions of variables
USA-CHN dyad	USA-CHN	UC_p, UC_f	Scales of cooperative/conflictual behavior from the USA toward China
USA-CHN dyad	CHN-USA	CU_p, CU_f	Scales of cooperative/conflictual behavior from China toward the USA
USA-RUS dyad	USA-RUS	UR_p, UR_f	Scales of cooperative/conflictual behavior from the USA toward Russia
USA-RUS dyad	RUS-USA	RU_p, RU_f	Scales of cooperative/conflictual behavior from Russia toward the USA
RUS-CHN dyad	RUS-CHN	RC_p, RC_f	Scales of cooperative/conflictual behavior from Russia toward China
RUS-CHN dyad	RUS-CHN	CR_p, CR_f	Scales of cooperative/conflictual behavior from China toward Russia

Table 2.
The significance level of the Granger/Wald test of the USA-China dyad in both periods

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Table 2.
The significance level of the Granger/Wald test of the USA-China dyad in both periods

Independent variables	1992.01-2001.09 period				2001.10-2016.12 period
	Dependent variable				Dependent variable
	UC_p	CU_p	UC_f	CU_f	UC_p	CU_p	UC_f	CU_f
UC_p(-1)	-	0.038***	0.091**	0.159*	-	0.767	0.681	0.615
CU_p(-1)	0.649	-	0.090**	0.389	0.572	-	0.306	0.234
UR_p(-1)	0.296	0.460	0.161*	0.543	0.052**	0.033***	0.054**	0.571
RU_p(-1)	0.264	0.383	0.208	0.849	0.156*	0.146*	0.224	0.633
RC_p(-1)	0.007***	0.019***	0.328	0.024***	0.444	0.342	0.503	0.619
CR_p(-1)	0.007***	0.018***	0.382	0.018***	0.432	0.331	0.319	0.646
UC_f(-1)	0.866	0.754	-	0.149*	0.027***	0.031*	-	0.010***
CU_f(-1)	0.295	0.537	0.042***	-	0.760	0.698	0.269	-
UR_f(-1)	0.143*	0.210	0.146*	0.012***	0.833	0.836	0.083**	0.078**
RU_f(-1)	0.872	0.873	0.933	0.867	0.856	0.979	0.101*	0.550
RC_f(-1)	0.223	0.485	0.357	0.880	0.127*	0.055**	0.283	0.671
CR_f(-1)	0.473	0.561	0.496	0.669	0.557	0.253	0.829	0.731
R²	0.726	0.713	0.558	0.570	0.892	0.897	0.912	0.914
Adjusted R²	0.694	0.680	0.506	0.519	0.884	0.890	0.905	0.908
F-statistic	22.741	21.320	10.826	11.356	115.926	122.708	145.113	149.057

Table 3.
The significance level of the Granger/Wald test of the USA-Russia dyad in both periods

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Table 3.
The significance level of the Granger/Wald test of the USA-Russia dyad in both periods

Independent variables	1992.01-2001.09 period				2001.10-2016.12 period
	Dependent variable				Dependent variable
	UR_p	RU_p	UR_f	RU_f	UR_p	RU_p	UR_f	RU_f
UC_p(-1)	0.759	0.642	0.431	0.190*	0.097	0.060**	0.678	0.720
CU_p(-1)	0.842	0.719	0.568	0.273	0.055**	0.032***	0.642	0.840
UR_p(-1)	-	0.579	0.304	0.123*	-	0.827	0.762	0.900
RU_p(-1)	0.112*	-	0.163*	0.113*	0.856	-	0.805	0.766
RC_p(-1)	0.518	0.388	0.504	0.753	0.930	0.862	0.887	0.916
CR_p(-1)	0.250	0.166*	0.338	0.535	0.944	0.878	0.927	0.938
UC_f(-1)	0.832	0.770	0.656	0.919	0.057**	0.049***	0.308	0.208
CU_f(-1)	0.651	0.387	0.796	0.878	0.937	0.720	0.460	0.644
UR_f(-1)	0.391	0.626	-	0.332	0.123*	0.159*	-	0.003***
RU_f(-1)	0.863	0.559	0.511	-	0.430	0.287	0.787	-
RC_f(-1)	0.969	0.958	0.723	0.585	0.416	0.470	0.346	0.675
CR_f(-1)	0.978	0.941	0.542	0.605	0.604	0.428	0.886	0.535
R²	0.553	0.540	0.597	0.604	0.869	0.869	0.880	0.849
Adjusted R²	0.501	0.486	0.550	0.558	0.860	0.860	0.872	0.839
F-statistic	10.628	10.075	12.707	13.093	93.769	93.501	103.572	79.374

Table 4.
The significance level of the Granger/Wald test of China-Russia dyad in both periods

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Table 4.
The significance level of the Granger/Wald test of China-Russia dyad in both periods

Independent variables	1992.01-2001.09 period				2001.10-2016.12 period
	Dependent variable				Dependent variable
	RC_p	CR_p	RC_f	CR_f	RC_p	CR_p	RC_f	CR_f
UC_p(-1)	0.919	0.795	0.950	0.553	0.445	0.446	0.613	0.339
CU_p(-1)	0.673	0.807	0.626	0.728	0.236	0.263	0.856	0.538
UR_p(-1)	0.627	0.502	0.598	0.091	0.011***	0.011***	0.312	0.172*
RU_p(-1)	0.732	0.681	0.914	0.044***	0.007***	0.009***	0.277	0.163*
RC_p(-1)	-	0.601	0.911	0.119*	-	0.845	0.745	0.799
CR_p(-1)	0.480	-	0.971	0.415	0.696	-	0.851	0.603
UC_f(-1)	0.006***	0.001***	0.973	0.608	0.514	0.661	0.581	0.777
CU_f(-1)	0.004***	0.001***	0.614	0.602	0.303	0.398	0.359	0.195*
UR_f(-1)	0.965	0.453	0.131*	0.048***	0.062**	0.153*	0.028***	0.195*
RU_f(-1)	0.745	0.670	0.187*	0.905	0.566	0.833	0.181*	0.360
RC_f(-1)	0.000***	0.000***	-	0.887	0.272	0.214	-	0.198*
CR_f(-1)	0.001***	0.000***	0.054**	-	0.184*	0.202	0.917	-
R²	0.539	0.561	0.444	0.454	0.692	0.684	0.682	0.695
Adj. R²	0.485	0.509	0.379	0.391	0.670	0.662	0.659	0.673
F-statistic	10.024	10.947	6.845	7.145	31.616	30.524	30.180	32.109

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Lihua YUAN, Changqing SONG, Changxiu CHENG, Shi SHEN, Xiaoqiang CHEN, Yuanhui WANG. The cooperative and conflictual interactions between the United States, Russia, and China: A quantitative analysis of event data[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2020, 30(10): 1702

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Paper Information

Category: Research Articles

Received: --

Accepted: Jun. 2, 2020

Published Online: Apr. 21, 2021

The Author Email: SONG Changqing (songcq@bnu.edu.cn)

DOI:10.1007/s11442-020-1808-6

Topics

Resource Economy

Research Articles

Table 1. Descriptions of the monthly time-series variables

Table 1. Descriptions of the monthly time-series variables

Table 2. The significance level of the Granger/Wald test of the USA-China dyad in both periods

Table 2. The significance level of the Granger/Wald test of the USA-China dyad in both periods

Table 3. The significance level of the Granger/Wald test of the USA-Russia dyad in both periods

Table 3. The significance level of the Granger/Wald test of the USA-Russia dyad in both periods

Table 4. The significance level of the Granger/Wald test of China-Russia dyad in both periods

Table 4. The significance level of the Granger/Wald test of China-Russia dyad in both periods

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Table 1.
Descriptions of the monthly time-series variables

Table 1.
Descriptions of the monthly time-series variables

Table 2.
The significance level of the Granger/Wald test of the USA-China dyad in both periods

Table 2.
The significance level of the Granger/Wald test of the USA-China dyad in both periods

Table 3.
The significance level of the Granger/Wald test of the USA-Russia dyad in both periods

Table 3.
The significance level of the Granger/Wald test of the USA-Russia dyad in both periods

Table 4.
The significance level of the Granger/Wald test of China-Russia dyad in both periods

Table 4.
The significance level of the Granger/Wald test of China-Russia dyad in both periods