Adaptive Prediction of Remaining Useful Life for Optoelectronic Equipment Based on Nonlinear Fractional Brownian Motion

Xudong Gao; Changhua Hu; Jianxun Zhang; Dangbo Du; Hong Pei

doi:10.3788/AOS202040.2423001

Acta Optica Sinica, Volume. 40, Issue 24, 2423001(2020)

Adaptive Prediction of Remaining Useful Life for Optoelectronic Equipment Based on Nonlinear Fractional Brownian Motion

Xudong Gao, Changhua Hu^*, Jianxun Zhang, Dangbo Du, and Hong Pei

Author Affiliations

College of Missile Engineering, Rocket Force University of Engineering, Xi'an, Shaanxi 710025, China

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Abstract Get PDF(in Chinese)

Figures & Tables(8)

Fig. 1. Percentage change of the working current of a GaAs laser to be predicted at 80 ℃ over time

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Fig. 2. Real-time updated process of random coefficients in the three models. (a)(b) Model 1; (c)(d) model 2; (e)(f) model 3

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Fig. 3. RUL PDF of the three models at various time

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Fig. 4. RUL PDF of the three models at 3000, 3250, 3500, and 3750 h. (a) 3000 h; (b) 3250 h; (c) 3500 h; (d) 3750 h

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Fig. 5. Comparison of RUL predicted by the three models

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Fig. 6. MSE comparison of RUL prediction results of three models

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Table 1. Percentage change of the working current of a GaAs laser at 80 ℃ over time

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Table 1. Percentage change of the working current of a GaAs laser at 80 ℃ over time

Time /(10³ h)	Monitored data
Time /(10³ h)	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15
0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
0.25	0.47	0.71	0.71	0.36	0.27	0.36	0.36	0.46	0.51	0.41	0.44	0.39	0.30	0.44	0.50
0.50	0.93	1.22	1.17	0.62	0.61	1.39	0.92	1.07	0.93	1.49	1.00	0.80	0.74	0.70	0.83
0.75	2.11	1.90	1.73	1.36	1.11	1.95	1.21	1.42	1.57	2.38	1.57	1.35	1.52	1.05	1.29
1.00	2.72	2.30	1.99	1.95	1.77	2.86	1.46	1.77	1.96	3.00	1.96	1.74	1.85	1.35	1.52
1.25	3.51	2.87	2.53	2.30	2.06	3.46	1.93	2.11	2.59	3.84	2.51	2.98	2.39	1.80	1.91
1.50	4.43	3.75	2.97	2.95	2.58	3.81	2.39	2.40	3.29	4.50	2.84	3.59	2.95	2.55	2.27
1.75	4.91	4.42	3.30	3.39	2.99	4.53	2.68	2.78	3.61	5.25	3.47	4.03	3.51	2.83	2.78
2.00	5.48	4.99	3.94	3.79	3.38	5.35	2.94	3.02	4.11	6.26	4.01	4.44	3.92	3.39	3.42
2.25	5.99	5.51	4.16	4.11	4.05	5.92	3.42	3.29	4.60	7.05	4.51	4.79	5.03	3.72	3.78
2.50	6.72	6.07	4.45	4.50	4.63	6.71	4.09	3.75	4.91	7.80	4.80	5.22	5.47	4.09	4.11
2.75	7.13	6.64	4.89	4.72	5.24	7.70	4.58	4.16	5.34	8.32	5.20	5.48	5.84	4.83	4.38
3.00	8.00	7.16	5.27	4.98	5.62	8.61	4.84	4.76	5.84	8.93	5.66	5.96	6.50	5.41	4.63
3.25	8.92	7.78	5.69	5.28	6.04	9.15	5.11	5.16	6.40	9.55	6.20	6.23	6.94	5.76	5.38
3.50	9.49	8.42	6.02	5.61	6.32	9.95	5.57	5.46	6.84	10.45	6.54	6.99	7.39	6.14	5.84
3.75	9.87	8.91	6.45	5.95	7.10	10.49	6.11	5.81	7.20	11.28	6.96	7.37	7.85	6.51	6.16
4.00	10.94	9.28	6.88	6.14	7.59	11.01	7.17	6.24	7.88	12.21	7.42	7.88	8.09	6.88	6.62

Table 2. Prior estimation of parameters Θ
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Table 2. Prior estimation of parameters Θ
Model μ_λ $σ_{λ}^{2}$ σ² $σ_{ε}^{2}$ β H ln L(Θ) AIC BIC
Model 1 1.897 0.0442 0.067 0.095 1.98 0.9131 -29.87 71.74 92.56
Model 2 1.726 0.0855 0.095 0.168 — — -36.11 88.42 105.04
Model 3 1.735 0.0771 0.087 0.132 1.76 — -33.84 79.68 100.50

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Xudong Gao, Changhua Hu, Jianxun Zhang, Dangbo Du, Hong Pei. Adaptive Prediction of Remaining Useful Life for Optoelectronic Equipment Based on Nonlinear Fractional Brownian Motion[J]. Acta Optica Sinica, 2020, 40(24): 2423001

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