Geographical Research, Volume. 39, Issue 10, 2268(2020)

The influence of the policy adjustment on the increase of grain production and farmers' income in restricted development zones

Liangjian WANG... Zhen LIU*, Wei ZHANG, Han LI and Yan LIU |Show fewer author(s)
Author Affiliations
  • College of Economics Trade, Human University, Changsha 410079, China
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    Figures & Tables(7)
    Scope of the study area
    • Table 1. Descriptive statistics of variables

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      Table 1. Descriptive statistics of variables

      变量含义计算方法与来源观察值平均数方差最小值最大值
      人均粮食产量(Y1粮食总产量/农村人口9570.82680.30610.29791.6653
      农民人均收入(Y2湖南省统计年鉴95776.347749.42169.0522294.0573
      人均播种面积(X1粮食播种面积/农村人口9571.45190.73920.386019.1259
      人均农机动力拥有量(X2农机总动力/农村人口9571.43380.75510.25157.6279
      有效灌溉面积占比(X3有效灌溉面积/总面积95714.85459.17551.913353.2258
      农民人均第一产业增加值(X4第一产业增加值/农村人口95766.880635.931213.0000222.8758
      城镇化率(X5城镇人口/总人口9570.37820.10470.17130.7706
      人均社会固定资产投资(X6社会固定资产投资/总人口957166.6415168.71375.32911177.1300
      第一产业增加值占比(X7第一产业增加值/地区总产值9570.21520.08500.03440.5064
      人均第二产业增加值(X8第二产业增加值/地区总人口95799.7436112.58025.7810832.0853
      人均第三产业增加值(X9第三产业增加值/地区总人口95774.612249.624512.2654378.4332
    • Table 2. Regression results of models

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      Table 2. Regression results of models

      变量Y1(未加入控制变量)Y1(加入控制变量)Y2(未加入控制变量)Y2(加入控制变量)
      du×dt0.0278*(0.067)0.0382***(0.004)0.0904(0.153)0.1020*(0.099)
      X10.1558**(0.048)
      X20.0444**(0.011)
      X30.0009(0.955)
      X40.2545***(0.000)
      X51.5598**(0.014)
      X60.0859(0.115)
      X71.6722*(0.056)
      X80.2162**(0.020)
      X90.2272**(0.015)
      个体固定效应(φi)控制控制控制控制
      时间固定效应(ηt)控制控制控制控制
      R-squared0.70000.80160.81100.8331
    • Table 3. Parallel assumptions about the temporal variation trend of increasing production and increasing income of farmers

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      Table 3. Parallel assumptions about the temporal variation trend of increasing production and increasing income of farmers

      交互项Y1Y2
      政策前6年0.0147(0.410)0.0273(0.151)
      政策前5年0.0281(0.207)-0.235(0.503)
      政策前4年0.0183(0.433)0.0210(0.563)
      政策前3年0.0209(0.390)0.0859(0.227)
      政策前2年0.0416(0.101)0.1254*(0.074)
      政策前1年0.0548**(0.037)0.1159(0.113)
      政策实施年0.0615**(0.019)0.1380*(0.093)
      政策后1年0.0714**(0.011)0.1496*(0.097)
      政策后2年0.0565*(0.053)0.1664*(0.084)
      政策后3年0.0682**(0.036)0.1736(0.102)
    • Table 4. Robustness test

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      Table 4. Robustness test

      变量变量替换Y1反事实检验Y1反事实检验Y2
      du×dt0.0382***(0.004)0.0089(0.414)-0.0215(0.679)
      X1-0.8442***(0.000)0.1608**(0.046)
      X20.0444**(0.011)0.0411**(0.012)
      X30.0009(0.955)-0.0011(0.948)
      X40.2545***(0.000)0.2420***(0.000)
      X51.5317**(0.019)
      X60.0821(0.143)
      X71.4526*(0.087)
      X80.2197**(0.020)
      X90.2227**(0.024)
      个体固定效应(φi)控制控制控制
      时间固定效应(ηt)控制控制控制
      R-squared0.83930.79740.8303
    • Table 5. Effect of implementation in counties and cities

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      Table 5. Effect of implementation in counties and cities

      变量Y1变量Y2
      du×dt0.0376***(0.006)0.0175(0.515)du×dt0.0787*(0.098)0.0446(0.770)
      X10.2939***(0.001)0.0595(0.157)X51.3814**(0.028)2.2966*(0.053)
      X20.0644***(0.002)0.0244(0.237)X60.0511(0.383)0.2320***(0.004)
      X30.0036(0.833)0.0092(0.795)X70.1178(0.867)5.8650***(0.002)
      X40.2154***(0.000)0.2920***(0.000)X80.0974(0.211)0.6679**(0.033)
      X90.1871*(0.069)0.0799(0.757)
      个体固定效应(φi)控制控制个体固定效应(φi)控制控制
      时间固定效应(ηt)控制控制时间固定效应(ηt)控制控制
      R-squared0.83320.7895R-squared0.85030.8949
    • Table 6. Effects of different grain yield increases

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      Table 6. Effects of different grain yield increases

      变量水稻玉米大豆
      du×dt0.0537***(0.000)0.0358(0.731)-0.0016(0.984)
      X10.1405*(0.055)0.2783**(0.034)0.3073*(0.094)
      X20.0351*(0.089)0.1818(0.140)0.0458(0.675)
      X3-0.0019(0.929)-0.0675(0.570)-0.0093(0.906)
      X40.2876***(0.000)-0.4325(0.127)0.5551**(0.012)
      个体固定效应(φi)控制控制控制
      时间固定效应(ηt)控制控制控制
      R-squared0.71730.50720.2315
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    Liangjian WANG, Zhen LIU, Wei ZHANG, Han LI, Yan LIU. The influence of the policy adjustment on the increase of grain production and farmers' income in restricted development zones[J]. Geographical Research, 2020, 39(10): 2268

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    Paper Information

    Received: Dec. 23, 2019

    Accepted: --

    Published Online: Apr. 23, 2021

    The Author Email: LIU Zhen (863104606@qq.com)

    DOI:10.11821/dlyj020191097

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