Comprehensive urbanization level and its dynamic factors for five Central Asian countries

Haitao MA; Zhan SUN

doi:10.1007/s11442-020-1811-y

Journal of Geographical Sciences, Volume. 30, Issue 11, 1761(2020)

Comprehensive urbanization level and its dynamic factors for five Central Asian countries

Haitao MA1...2,* and Zhan SUN12 |Show fewer author(s)

¹Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China

²College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

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Figures & Tables(12)

Fig. 1. Locations of the five Central Asian countries

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Fig. 2. Evolution of the comprehensive urbanization level of the five Central Asian countries during 1991-2017

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Fig. 3. Spatial distribution of the comprehensive urbanization level of the five Central Asian countries

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Fig. 4. Evolution of four urbanization subsystems of the five Central Asian countries during 1991-2017

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Fig. 5. Urbanization dynamic mechanism of Central Asian countries based on internal and external forces

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Table 1.
Main economic and social indicators of the five Central Asian countries in 2018

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Table 1.
Main economic and social indicators of the five Central Asian countries in 2018

	Independence time	Country area(×10⁴ km²)	Total population(×10⁴ persons)	Urbanizationrate (%)	Population density (persons/km²)	GDP(×10⁸ USD)	Per capita GDP (USD/person)
Kazakhstan	1991-12	272.49	1827.65	57.43	6.77	1705.39	9331.05
Uzbekistan	1991-08	44.74	3295.54	50.48	77.47	505.00	1532.37
Turkmenistan	1992-01	48.81	585.09	51.59	12.45	407.61	6966.64
Tajikistan	1991-09	14.14	910.08	25.23	65.57	75.23	826.62
Kyrgyzstan	1991-08	20.00	631.58	39.10	32.93	80.93	1281.36
Central Asia	-	400.17	7249.94	48.16	18.47	2774.16	3826.45

Table 2.
Comprehensive urbanization evaluation index system of the five Central Asian countries

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Table 2.
Comprehensive urbanization evaluation index system of the five Central Asian countries

Target layer	Subsystem	Weight	Evaluation indicators	Unit	Weight
Comprehensive urbanization level	Demographic urbanization	0.278	Urban population proportion	%	0.091
			Urban population growth rate	%	0.070
			Non-agricultural employment proportion	%	0.117
	Economic urbanization	0.284	Per capita GDP	USD/person	0.095
			Per capita industrial output value	USD/person	0.089
			Non-agricultural output ratio	%	0.100
	Social urbanization	0.216	Per capita medical expenditure	USD/person	0.090
			Per capita public education spending	USD/person	0.061
			Internet coverage rate	%	0.065
	Spatial urbanization	0.222	Land urbanization rate	%	0.085
			Urban built-up area	km2	0.051
			Urban road network density	km/km2	0.086

Table 3.
Explanatory variables of urbanization dynamics in the five Central Asian countries

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Table 3.
Explanatory variables of urbanization dynamics in the five Central Asian countries

Types	Dynamic indicator (abbreviation)	Unit	Explanation
Internal dynamics	Urban per capita income (UPI)	USD per person	Urban income pulls
	Per capita agricultural output (PAO)	USD per person	Rural income thrust
	Government final consumption (GFC)	10,000 USD	Government administrative motivation
	Total market capitalization (TMC)	10,000 USD	Market economy motivation
External dynamics	Actually utilized foreign capital (AFC)	10,000 USD	External investment motivation
External dynamics	Total merchandise trade (TMT)	10,000 USD	External trade motivation
Bidirectional dynamics	Railway construction length (RCL)	km	External transportation facilities motivation
Bidirectional dynamics	Railway freight volume (RFV)	10,000 tonne × km	Internal and external logistics connection

Table 4.
Data cointegration test results

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Table 4.
Data cointegration test results

Test method	Items	T-statistic	P-value
Kao test	Modified Dickey-Fuller	-2.7650	0.0028
	Dickey-Fuller	-2.1039	0.0077
	Augmented Dickey-Fuller	-2.6177	0.0045
	Unadjusted modified Dickey-Fuller	-2.6768	0.0037
	Unadjusted Dickey-Fuller	-2.0764	0.0189
Pedroni test	Modified Phillips-Perron	1.8399	0.0329
	Phillips-Perron	-2.3175	0.0102
	Augmented Dickey-Fuller	-2.0685	0.0193

Table 5.
Test results of model assumptions
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Table 5.
Test results of model assumptions
Test method Assumption F-statistic P-value Test result
F test Hybrid model 88.54 0.0000 Fixed-effect model
Hausman test Random-effects model 230.35 0.0000 Fixed-effect model

Table 6.
Coefficient estimation results of the fixed-effect model

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Table 6.
Coefficient estimation results of the fixed-effect model

Types	Variable	Coefficient	T-statistic	P-value
Internal dynamic	Urban per capita income (UPI)	0.2813	5.18	0.000
	Per capita agricultural output (PAO)	-0.2218	-7.43	0.000
	Government final consumption (GFC)	0.2348	4.30	0.000
	Total market capitalization (TMC)	0.0612	2.45	0.016
External dynamic	Actually utilized foreign capital (AFC)	0.0806	2.11	0.017
External dynamic	Total merchandise trade (TMT)	0.0937	2.27	0.007
Bidirectional dynamic	Railway construction length (RCL)	0.5665	4.94	0.000
Bidirectional dynamic	Railway freight volume (RFV)	0.0887	2.88	0.005
-	Constant term	-13.64932	-15.89	0.000

Table 7.
Overall estimation of the fixed-effect model
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Table 7.
Overall estimation of the fixed-effect model
F-statistic R²-within R²-between R²-overall P-value (F)
207.25 0.9218 0.8386 0.7365 0.0000

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Haitao MA, Zhan SUN. Comprehensive urbanization level and its dynamic factors for five Central Asian countries[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2020, 30(11): 1761

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Paper Information

Received: Mar. 18, 2020

Accepted: Jul. 21, 2020

Published Online: May. 7, 2021

The Author Email: MA Haitao (maht@igsnrr.ac.cn)

DOI:10.1007/s11442-020-1811-y

Topics

Resource Economy

Research Articles

Table 1. Main economic and social indicators of the five Central Asian countries in 2018

Table 1. Main economic and social indicators of the five Central Asian countries in 2018

Table 2. Comprehensive urbanization evaluation index system of the five Central Asian countries

Table 2. Comprehensive urbanization evaluation index system of the five Central Asian countries

Table 3. Explanatory variables of urbanization dynamics in the five Central Asian countries

Table 3. Explanatory variables of urbanization dynamics in the five Central Asian countries

Table 4. Data cointegration test results

Table 4. Data cointegration test results

Table 5. Test results of model assumptions

Table 5. Test results of model assumptions

Table 6. Coefficient estimation results of the fixed-effect model

Table 6. Coefficient estimation results of the fixed-effect model

Table 7. Overall estimation of the fixed-effect model

Table 7. Overall estimation of the fixed-effect model

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Table 1.
Main economic and social indicators of the five Central Asian countries in 2018

Table 1.
Main economic and social indicators of the five Central Asian countries in 2018

Table 2.
Comprehensive urbanization evaluation index system of the five Central Asian countries

Table 2.
Comprehensive urbanization evaluation index system of the five Central Asian countries

Table 3.
Explanatory variables of urbanization dynamics in the five Central Asian countries

Table 3.
Explanatory variables of urbanization dynamics in the five Central Asian countries

Table 4.
Data cointegration test results

Table 4.
Data cointegration test results

Table 5.
Test results of model assumptions

Table 5.
Test results of model assumptions

Table 6.
Coefficient estimation results of the fixed-effect model

Table 6.
Coefficient estimation results of the fixed-effect model

Table 7.
Overall estimation of the fixed-effect model

Table 7.
Overall estimation of the fixed-effect model