Exploring global food security pattern from the perspective of spatio-temporal evolution

Jianming CAI; Enpu MA; Jing LIN; Liuwen LIAO; Yan HAN

doi:10.1007/s11442-020-1722-y

Overall index

First layer factors

Second layer indicators

+/- influence

Measurement methods

Food security index

Food supply

X₁: per capita food production (kg/person)

+⁽¹⁾

X₁ = total grain production/total population

X₂: per capita protein supply (g/person*day)

X₂ = supply of food protein/total population * days of the year

X₃: per capita animal protein supply (g/person*day)

X₃ = animal protein supply/total population * days of the year

X₄: rate of dietary energy supply (%)

X₄ = population with daily dietary energy greater than 2320 kcal⁽²⁾/total population

Food access

X₅: food deficiency (kcal/person/day)

X₅ = 2320 - daily per capita dietary energy taken by malnourished populations

X₆: per capita GDP (2011- dollar value)

X₆ = gross domestic product converted by purchasing power parity/total population

Food utilization

X₇: the proportion of short children under 5 (%)

X₇ = number of short children under 5/number of children under 5

X₈: the proportion of wasted children under 5 (%)

X₈ = number of wasted children under 5/number of children under 5

X₉: proportion of population with access to clean water ( % )

X₉ = population with clean water/total population

Economic and political stability

X₁₀: variability in food production per capita

X₁₀ = standard deviation of per capita food production/average of per capita food production

X₁₁: variability of food supply per capita(kcal/person/day)

X₁₁ = standard deviation of per capita food supply

X₁₂: political stability and non-violence level

X₁₂: World Governance Indicators Developed by the World Bank (WGI)⁽³⁾

Influencing factors

Methods and data

Data resource websites

Z₁: per capita arable land area (ha/person)

Z₁ = arable land area/total population

http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/

Z₂: per capita renewable water resources (m³/person)

Z₂ = renewable water resources/total population

renewable water resource：http://chartsbin.com/view/1469;population：http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/

Z₃: annual precipitation (mm)

Z₃: provided by the climate research unit at the University of East Anglia

https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/hrg/cru_ts_3.23/crucy.1506241137.v3.23/countries/pre/

Z₄: annual average temperature (℃)

Z₄: provided by the climate research unit at the University of East Anglia

https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/hrg/cru_ts_3.23/crucy.1506241137.v3.23/countries/tmp/

Z₅: coordination degree of land and water

Z₅ = renewable water/arable land area

renewable water resource：http://chartsbin.com/view/1469;arable land area：http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/

Z₆: chemical fertilizer applied per unit land area (kg/ha)

Z₆ = applied chemical fertilizers/arable land area

http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/

Z₇: CO₂ emissions (kt)

Z₇: from the National Greenhouse Gas Emission Dataset of the World Resources Institute. This dataset is a combination of data from Oak Ridge National Laboratory, FAO, International Energy Agency, World Bank, and Environmental Protection Agency.

http://datasets.wri.org/dataset/cait-country

Z₈: per capita GDP (dollar value in 2011)

Z₈ = GDP (dollar value in 2011)/total population

http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/

Z₉: the proportion of the population with access to clean water (%)

Z₉ = population with access to clean water/total population

http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/

Z₁₀: political stability and non-violence level

Z_10:World Governance Indicators Developed by the World Bank

https://datacatalog.worldbank.org/dataset/worldwide-governance-indicators

First layer indicators

Food supply

Food accessibility

Food utilization

Stability of the economic and political system

Second layer variables

X₁

X₂

X₃

X₄

X₅

X₆

X₇

X₈

X₉

X₁₀

X₁₁

X₁₂

Weight

0.21

0.28

0.33

0.18

0.51

0.49

0.39

0.31

0.3

0.27

0.31

0.42

Year

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Moran's I

0.22

0.23

0.24

0.25

0.28

0.27

0.28

0.26

0.29

0.25

0.27

0.24

0.27

z-score

14.00

13.84

13.71

14.40

15.14

15.39

17.12

16.51

17.69

16.44

18.27

15.44

16.68

15.04

17.04

P-score

Year

Multi-linear regression equations

R²

Sig.

2002

FSI=0.26-0.14Z₄+0.60Z₈+0.42Z₉+0.39Z₁₀

0.78

114.45

0.00

2003

FSI=0.22-0.19Z₄+0.61Z₈+0.49Z₉+0.37Z₁₀

0.79

118.01

0.00

2004

FSI=0.19-0.19Z₄+0.56Z₈+0.52Z₉+0.39Z₁₀

0.78

110.60

0.00

2005

FSI=0.06-0.17Z₄+0.51Z₈+0.62Z₉+0.43Z₁₀

0.79

117.77

0.00

2006

FSI=0.31+0.14Z₃-0.32Z₄+0.71Z₈+0.43Z₉+0.33Z₁₀

0.83

124.08

0.00

2007

FSI=0.20-0.17Z₄-0.36Z₆+0.70Z₈+0.55Z₉+0.34Z₁₀

0.83

121.30

0.00

2008

FSI=0.32-0.24Z₄+0.68Z₈+0.47Z₉+0.28Z₁₀

0.82

147.35

0.00

2009

FSI=0.31+0.11Z₃-0.24Z₄-0.18Z₆+0.76Z₈+0.44Z₉+0.28Z₁₀

0.83

102.51

0.00

2010

FSI=0.26-0.16Z₄-0.45Z₆+0.86Z₈+0.48Z₉+0.24Z₁₀

0.83

124.83

0.00

2011

FSI=0.009-0.10Z₄-0.64Z₆+0.82Z₈+0.61Z₉+0.36Z₁₀

0.86

153.29

0.00

2012

FSI=0.23-0.10Z₄-0.59Z₆+0.83Z₈+0.40Z₉+0.31Z₁₀

0.86

152.71

0.00

2013

FSI=0.28-0.10Z₄+0.35Z₈+0.31Z₉+0.25Z₁₀

0.69

70.32

0.00

2014

FSI=0.25-0.12Z₄+0.39Z₈+0.36Z₉+0.28Z₁₀

0.72

80.87

0.00

Year

Transformation equations

R²

Sig.

2002

FSI=-0.24+0.09T₄+0.57T₈+0.30T₉+0.29T₁₀

0.83

160.09

0.00

2003

FSI=-0.23+0.10T₄+0.55T₈+0.35T₉+0.30T₁₀

0.83

157.89

0.00

2004

FSI=-0.28+0.11T₄+0.54T₈+0.37T₉+0.29T₁₀

0.82

141.20

0.00

2005

FSI=-0.23+0.06T₄+0.47T₈+0.42T₉+0.33T₁₀

0.82

146.46

0.00

2006

FSI=-0.23-0.04T₃+0.16T₄+0.56T₈+0.34T₉+0.25T₁₀

0.88

185.76

0.00

2007

FSI=-0.22+0.14T₄-0.03T₆+0.53T₈+0.37T₉+0.28T₁₀

0.84

129.99

0.00

2008

FSI=0.20T₄+0.64T₈-0.03T₉+0.28T₁₀

0.85

186.05

0.00

2009

FSI=-0.31+0.04T₃+0.16T₄-0.02T₆+0.59T₈+0.28T₉+0.30T₁₀

0.86

128.65

0.00

2010

FSI=-0.29+0.15T₄+0.04T₆+0.60T₈+0.30T₉+0.23T₁₀

0.86

160.09

0.00

2011

FSI=-0.22+0.08T₄-0.06T₆+0.55T₈+0.35T₉+0.34T₁₀

0.85

147.59

0.00

2012

FSI=-0.24+0.10T₄-0.001T₆+0.60T₈+0.26T₉+0.33T₁₀

0.87

162.64

0.00

2013

FSI=-0.23+0.10T₄+0.37T₈+0.46T₉+0.39T₁₀

0.72

81.11

0.00

2014

FSI=-0.24+0.09T₄+0.52T₈+0.34T₉+0.37T₁₀

0.77

106.88

0.00

Year

Multi-nonlinear regression equations

2002

FSI=0.30+0.27Z₄³-0.41Z₄²+0.12Z₄-1.20Z₈²+1.52Z₈+1.85Z₉³-2.83Z₉²+1.35Z₉+0.20Z₁₀²+0.02Z₁₀

2003

FSI=0.31-0.06Z₄-1.16Z₈²+1.47Z₈+2.04Z₉³-2.98Z₉²+1.31Z₉+0.19Z₁₀²+0.05Z₁₀

2004

FSI=0.28+0.03Z₄²-0.09Z₄+0.25Z₈³-1.42Z₈²+1.47Z₈+2.19Z₉³-3.32Z₉²+1.56Z₉+0.11Z₁₀³+0.01Z₁₀²+0.12Z₁₀

2005

FSI=-0.06-0.04Z₄-1.01Z₈²+1.26Z₈+3.38Z₉³-5.54Z₉²+2.91Z₉+0.20Z₁₀²+0.27Z₁₀

2006

FSI=0.34-0.13Z₃³+0.18Z₃²-0.05Z₃-0.11Z₄-1.18Z₈²+1.53Z₈+2.65Z₉³-3.95Z₉²+1.7Z₉+0.26Z₁₀³-0.17Z₁₀²+0.13Z₁₀

2007

FSI=0.39-0.09Z₄-0.35Z₆³+0.49Z₆²-0.15Z₆-0.96Z₈²+1.28Z₈+2.40Z₉³-3.51Z₉²+1.50Z₉+0.22Z₁₀²-0.01Z₁₀

2008

FSI=0.54-0.14Z₄-1.22Z₈²+1.61Z₈+0.30Z₉²-0.13Z₉+0.21Z₁₀³-0.08Z₁₀²+0.11Z₁₀

2009

FSI=0.39+0.12Z₃³-0.17Z₃²+0.06Z₃-0.11Z₄-0.14Z₆³+0.20Z₆²-0.08Z₆-1.14Z₈²+1.47Z₈+2.13Z₉³-3.26Z₉²+1.46Z₉+0.26Z₁₀³-0.11Z₁₀²+0.10Z₁₀

2010

FSI=0.38+0.02Z₄²-0.12Z₄+0.82Z₆³-1.07Z₆²+0.26Z₆-1.18Z₈²+1.52Z₈+2.47Z₉³-3.79Z₉²+1.69Z₉+0.24Z₁₀³-0.14Z₁₀²+0.10Z₁₀

2011

FSI=-0.02-0.05Z₄-3.32Z₆³+3.91Z₆²-0.61Z₆-1.13Z₈²+1.45Z₈+3.10Z₉³-5.10Z₉²+2.62Z₉+0.45Z₁₀³-0.56Z₁₀²+0.47Z₁₀

2012

FSI=0.35-0.06Z₄-0.06Z₆³+0.07Z₆²-0.01Z₆-1.03Z₈²+1.39Z₈+1.96Z₉³-3.01Z₉²+1.34Z₉+0.33Z₁₀³-0.27Z₁₀²+0.23Z₁₀

2013

FSI=0.46-0.04Z₄+0.32Z₈³-0.77Z₈²+0.63Z₈+1.69Z₉³-2.21Z₉²+0.68Z₉+0.29Z₁₀³-0.30Z₁₀²+0.24Z₁₀

2014

FSI=0.49-0.04Z₄+0.97Z₈³-1.90Z₈²+1.24Z₈+1.33Z₉³-1.70Z₉²+0.49Z₉+0.29Z₁₀²-0.09Z₁₀

Year

Annual precipitation

Annual average temperature

Chemical fertilizer applied per unit land area

Per capita GDP

Proportion of the population with access to clean water

Political stability and non-violence level

2002

-0.0216

0.3192

0.372

0.2262

2003

-0.057

0.319

0.378

0.243

2004

-0.0682

0.297

0.4366

0.2436

2005

-0.0354

0.2538

0.7518

0.4713

2006

-0.0104

-0.1104

0.3472

0.3978

0.22

2007

-0.0924

-0.0087

0.318

0.3885

0.2128

2008

-0.138

0.384

0.1689

0.2324

2009

0.0048

-0.1056

-0.0066

0.3245

0.3276

0.252

2010

-0.1005

0.012

0.336

0.363

0.1955

2011

-0.10

-0.64

0.82

0.61

0.36

2012

-0.056

-0.00029

0.354

0.2886

0.2871

2013

-0.038

0.185

0.161

0.2379

2014

-0.0378

0.312

0.1224

0.2035

Jianming CAI, Enpu MA, Jing LIN, Liuwen LIAO, Yan HAN. Exploring global food security pattern from the perspective of spatio-temporal evolution[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2020, 30(2): 179

Received: Aug. 2, 2019

Accepted: Oct. 30, 2019

Published Online: Sep. 29, 2020

The Author Email: LIN Jing (linjing@igsnrr.ac.cn)

DOI:10.1007/s11442-020-1722-y

Table 1.
Evaluation index system and measurement methods of food security

Table 1.
Evaluation index system and measurement methods of food security

Table 2.
The selection of influencing factors of food security and data sources

Table 2.
The selection of influencing factors of food security and data sources

Table 3.
Weight of each second layer variable

Table 3.
Weight of each second layer variable

Table 4.
Moran’s I, z-score and P-value of the food security index from 2000 to 2014

Table 4.
Moran’s I, z-score and P-value of the food security index from 2000 to 2014

Table 5.
Multi-linear regression equations served as control

Table 5.
Multi-linear regression equations served as control

Table 6.
Transformation equations

Table 6.
Transformation equations

Table 7.
Multi-nonlinear regression equations

Table 7.
Multi-nonlinear regression equations

Table 8.
Influence coefficient of each factor

Table 8.
Influence coefficient of each factor

Table 1. Evaluation index system and measurement methods of food security

Table 1. Evaluation index system and measurement methods of food security

Table 2. The selection of influencing factors of food security and data sources

Table 2. The selection of influencing factors of food security and data sources

Table 3. Weight of each second layer variable

Table 3. Weight of each second layer variable

Table 4. Moran’s I, z-score and P-value of the food security index from 2000 to 2014

Table 4. Moran’s I, z-score and P-value of the food security index from 2000 to 2014

Table 5. Multi-linear regression equations served as control

Table 5. Multi-linear regression equations served as control

Table 6. Transformation equations

Table 6. Transformation equations

Table 7. Multi-nonlinear regression equations

Table 7. Multi-nonlinear regression equations

Table 8. Influence coefficient of each factor

Table 8. Influence coefficient of each factor

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Table 1.
Evaluation index system and measurement methods of food security

Table 1.
Evaluation index system and measurement methods of food security

Table 2.
The selection of influencing factors of food security and data sources

Table 2.
The selection of influencing factors of food security and data sources

Table 3.
Weight of each second layer variable

Table 3.
Weight of each second layer variable

Table 4.
Moran’s I, z-score and P-value of the food security index from 2000 to 2014

Table 4.
Moran’s I, z-score and P-value of the food security index from 2000 to 2014

Table 5.
Multi-linear regression equations served as control

Table 5.
Multi-linear regression equations served as control

Table 6.
Transformation equations

Table 6.
Transformation equations

Table 7.
Multi-nonlinear regression equations

Table 7.
Multi-nonlinear regression equations

Table 8.
Influence coefficient of each factor

Table 8.
Influence coefficient of each factor