Ecosystem carbon storage under different scenarios of land use change in Qihe catchment, China

Wenbo ZHU; Jingjing ZHANG; Yaoping CUI; Lianqi ZHU

doi:10.1007/s11442-020-1796-6

Journal of Geographical Sciences, Volume. 30, Issue 9, 1507(2020)

Ecosystem carbon storage under different scenarios of land use change in Qihe catchment, China

Wenbo ZHU^*, Jingjing ZHANG, Yaoping CUI, and Lianqi ZHU

Author Affiliations

College of Environment & Planning, Henan University, Kaifeng 475004, Henan, China

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Figures & Tables(11)

Fig. 1. Location of the Qihe catchment in China and its digital elevation model (DEM)

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Fig. 2. Land use map of 2005 (a) and 2015 (b) as well as simulated map of 2015 (c) in the Qihe catchment, China

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Fig. 3. The simulated results of land use in 2025 under different scenarios in the Qihe catchment, China

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Fig. 4. Scenario comparison of land use changes in 2015-2025 in the Qihe catchment, China

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Fig. 5. Carbon storage, carbon density and the change of carbon density along with the increase of altitude in 2005, 2015 and different scenarios of 2025 in the Qihe catchment, China

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Fig. 6. Spatial distribution of carbon density and carbon density changes in 2005, 2015 and different scenarios of 2025 in the Qihe catchment, China

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Table 1.
The ELAS of all land use types under different scenarios
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Table 1.
The ELAS of all land use types under different scenarios
Type Cultivated land Woodland Grassland Water body Construction land Unused land
Q1 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.6
Q2 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.5
Q3 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.5

Table 2.
Carbon density of different land use types in the Qihe catchment, China (t/ha)
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Table 2.
Carbon density of different land use types in the Qihe catchment, China (t/ha)
Type C_i-above C_i-below C_i-soil
Cultivated land 4.02 0.76 105.14
Woodland 55.74 12.14 174.97
Grassland 0.39 2.46 96.89
Water body 0.04 0 64.03
Construction land 0.01 0 57.63
Unused land 0.01 0 58.89

Table 3.
Results of logistic regression for different land use types in 2005 in the Qihe catchment, China

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Table 3.
Results of logistic regression for different land use types in 2005 in the Qihe catchment, China

Encode	Cultivated land		Woodland		Grassland		Water body		Construction land		Unused land
Encode	Beta coefficient	Exp(B)	Beta coefficient	Exp(B)	Beta coefficient	Exp(B)	Beta coefficient	Exp(B)	Beta coefficient	Exp(B)	Beta coefficient	Exp(B)
Constant	2.1439	8.5329	-4.8852	0.0076	-1.9361	0.1443	-3.7741	0.0230	0.2381	1.2688	-13.1827	0
sc1gr0	0.0007	1.0007	0.0014	1.0014	-0.0014	0.9986	-0.0023	0.9977	-	-	0.0017	1.0017
sc1gr1	-0.1333	0.8752	0.0980	1.1029	0.0388	1.0395	-0.0896	0.9143	-0.0113	0.9888	0.0738	1.0766
sc1gr2	0.0004	1.0004	-0.0002	0.9998	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
sc1gr3	-0.0150	0.985	0.0105	1.0106	-0.0211	0.9791	0.1532	1.1656	-	-	-	-
sc1gr4	0.0084	1.0085	0.0638	1.0659	-0.0825	0.9209	-0.2295	0.7949	0.1963	1.2169	-	-
sc1gr5	-0.0325	0.9680	0.1033	1.1088	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
sc1gr6	-	-	0.0001	1.0001	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
sc1gr7	-0.0005	0.9995	0.0002	1.0002	0.0004	1.0004	0.0002	1.0002	-0.0090	0.9911	-	-
sc1gr8	-	-	-	-	0.0001	1.0001	-	-	-	-	-	-
sc1gr9	0.0001	1.0001	-	-	-	-	0.0001	1.0001	-	-	-	-
ROC value	0.810		0.848		0.711		0.843		0.956		0.825

Table 4.
Land use transfer matrix for 2005-2015 (ha) in the Qihe catchment, China

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Table 4.
Land use transfer matrix for 2005-2015 (ha) in the Qihe catchment, China

2015	2005
2015	Cultivated land	Woodland	Grassland	Water body	Construction land	Unused land	Total	Transferred-in Total
Cultivated land	47422	3262.5	6655.5	1257.75	1714.5	0	60312.25	12890.25
Woodland	6169.5	51878.75	8196.75	231.75	67.5	4.5	66548.75	14670
Grassland	12114	12136.5	53237.5	591.75	299.25	2.25	78381.25	25143.75
Water body	2468.25	623.25	762.75	1404.75	155.25	0	5414.25	4009.5
Construction land	4475.25	391.5	555.75	117	6499.25	2.25	12041	5541.75
Unused land	9	13.5	6.75	0	2.25	2	33.5	31.5
Total	72658	68306	69415	3603	8738	11	222731	-
Transferred-out Total	25236	16427.25	16177.5	2198.25	2238.75	9	-	62286.75

Table 5.
Statistics on carbon density changes during 2005-2015 and 2015-2025 under different scenarios in the Qihe catchment, China

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Table 5.
Statistics on carbon density changes during 2005-2015 and 2015-2025 under different scenarios in the Qihe catchment, China

Time period	Significantly decreased(≤-20 t/ha)		Basically unchanged(-20 to 20 t/ha)		Significantly increased (≥20 t/ha)
Time period	Raster grid	Proportion (%)	Raster grid	Proportion (%)	Raster grid	Proportion (%)
2005-2015	3419	3.45	95205	96.11	430	0.43
2015-2025 (Q1)	1599	1.61	97340	98.27	115	0.12
2015-2025 (Q2)	595	0.60	97958	98.89	501	0.51
2015-2025 (Q3)	170	0.17	97795	98.73	1089	1.10

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Wenbo ZHU, Jingjing ZHANG, Yaoping CUI, Lianqi ZHU. Ecosystem carbon storage under different scenarios of land use change in Qihe catchment, China[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2020, 30(9): 1507

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Paper Information

Category: Research Articles

Received: Nov. 29, 2019

Accepted: Feb. 10, 2020

Published Online: Apr. 21, 2021

The Author Email: ZHU Wenbo (zhuwb517@163.com)

DOI:10.1007/s11442-020-1796-6

Topics

Resource Economy

Research Articles

Table 1. The ELAS of all land use types under different scenarios

Table 1. The ELAS of all land use types under different scenarios

Table 2. Carbon density of different land use types in the Qihe catchment, China (t/ha)

Table 2. Carbon density of different land use types in the Qihe catchment, China (t/ha)

Table 3. Results of logistic regression for different land use types in 2005 in the Qihe catchment, China

Table 3. Results of logistic regression for different land use types in 2005 in the Qihe catchment, China

Table 4. Land use transfer matrix for 2005-2015 (ha) in the Qihe catchment, China

Table 4. Land use transfer matrix for 2005-2015 (ha) in the Qihe catchment, China

Table 5. Statistics on carbon density changes during 2005-2015 and 2015-2025 under different scenarios in the Qihe catchment, China

Table 5. Statistics on carbon density changes during 2005-2015 and 2015-2025 under different scenarios in the Qihe catchment, China

Table 1.
The ELAS of all land use types under different scenarios

Table 1.
The ELAS of all land use types under different scenarios

Table 2.
Carbon density of different land use types in the Qihe catchment, China (t/ha)

Table 2.
Carbon density of different land use types in the Qihe catchment, China (t/ha)

Table 3.
Results of logistic regression for different land use types in 2005 in the Qihe catchment, China

Table 3.
Results of logistic regression for different land use types in 2005 in the Qihe catchment, China

Table 4.
Land use transfer matrix for 2005-2015 (ha) in the Qihe catchment, China

Table 4.
Land use transfer matrix for 2005-2015 (ha) in the Qihe catchment, China

Table 5.
Statistics on carbon density changes during 2005-2015 and 2015-2025 under different scenarios in the Qihe catchment, China

Table 5.
Statistics on carbon density changes during 2005-2015 and 2015-2025 under different scenarios in the Qihe catchment, China