<trans-title>Investment timing and option value of afforestation carbon sequestration project under carbon trading mechanism</trans-title>

Fig. 1. Impact of carbon sequestration price volatility on the critical threshold of optimal investment timing and option value of carbon sequestration afforestation project

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Fig. 2. Impact of carbon sequestration transaction cost on the critical threshold of optimal investment timing and option value of carbon sequestration afforestation project

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Fig. 3. Impact of project filing success rate on the critical threshold of optimal investment timing and option value of carbon sequestration afforestation project

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Fig. 4. Impact of timber price changes on the critical threshold of optimal investment timing and option value of carbon sequestration afforestation project

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Fig. 5. Impact of labor price on the critical threshold of optimal investment timing and option value of carbon sequestration afforestation project

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Table 1. Classification and descriptive statistics of variables in the model

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Table 1. Classification and descriptive statistics of variables in the model

分类	变量	内容	单位	求解方法（取值）
微观项目参数	$V_{w}$	木材销售的收入与各项投入之差	万元/hm²	式（4）
	$C_{1}$	项目备案立项阶段的投资额贴现值	万元/hm²	0.01
	$C_{2}$	项目建设与运营阶段的投资额贴现值	万元/hm²	5.43
	$θ$	碳汇实物量参数	t	式（6）
	$T$	项目计入期限	年	20
宏观变量参数	$r$	风险调整贴现率^a	%	1.03
	$δ$	便利收益（价值漏损率）^b	%	1.02
	$σ$	碳汇价格波动率	%	34.0（历史数据法）
	$ρ$	项目备案成功率	%	15.2
主观参数	$μ$	碳价格预期增长率	%	0.01
主观参数	$β_{1}$	中间变量参数	—	式（10）

Table 2. Classification and analysis methods of variables

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Table 2. Classification and analysis methods of variables

分类	变量	单位	分析方法及原因
碳市场环境	碳价波动率	%	数值模拟分析
	碳汇交易成本	万元	数值模拟分析
	项目备案成功率	%	数值模拟分析
	价值漏损率	%	受碳汇价格、项目价值及投入总成本等因素的影响,不适合单独作数值模拟分析
	风险调整贴现率	%	受碳汇价格、项目价值及投入总成本等因素的影响,不适合单独作数值模拟分析
林业生产环境	固碳量	t	受碳汇价格、项目价值及投入总成本等因素的影响,不适合单独作数值模拟分析
	劳动力价格	元/工日	数值模拟分析
	木材价格	元/m³	数值模拟分析
主观参数	投资者要求的回报率	%	由风险调整贴现率和价值漏损率确定,不作数值模拟分析

Table 3. Afforestation costs of slash pine carbon sequestration forests per unit area

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Table 3. Afforestation costs of slash pine carbon sequestration forests per unit area

项目	单位	数量	单价/元	总金额/元
营造林成本				31920.0
造林支出				9120.0
清山用工	工日/hm²	22.5	140.0	3150.0
整地用工	工日/hm²	18.0	140.0	2520.0
栽植用工	工日/hm²	12.0	140.0	1680.0
扩穴培土用工	工日/hm²	7.5	140.0	1050.0
种苗费用	株/hm²	1800.0	0.4	720.0
前3年抚育总支出（共5次）	元/hm²	—	—	22800.0
除杂抚育用工	工日/hm²	75.0	140.0	10500.0
施肥抚育用工	工日/hm²	30.0	140.0	4200.0
间伐抚育支出	工日/hm²	22.5	140.0	3150.0
化肥费用	kg/hm²	1650.0	3.0	4950.0
林业三防年投入^a	元/hm²/a	1.0	1500.0	1500.0
造林当年基础设施建设	元/hm²	1.0	1500.0	1500.0
木材采运费用	m³	—	170.0	—
碳汇交易成本^b	元/hm²/a	1.0	59.5	59.5

Table 4. Calculation results of the critical threshold of optimal investment timing and option value of carbon sequestration afforestation project
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Table 4. Calculation results of the critical threshold of optimal investment timing and option value of carbon sequestration afforestation project
项目阶段投资时机临界阈值/（元/t）投资期权价值/（万元/hm²）
前期规划备案阶段 79.23 0.12
项目建设阶段 57.33 0.59

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Xianlei CAO. Investment timing and option value of afforestation carbon sequestration project under carbon trading mechanism[J]. Resources Science, 2020, 42(5): 825

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Paper Information

Received: Aug. 10, 2019

Accepted: --

Published Online: Apr. 15, 2021

The Author Email:

DOI:10.18402/resci.2020.05.03

Topics

Resource Economy

Research Articles

Table 1. Classification and descriptive statistics of variables in the model

Table 1. Classification and descriptive statistics of variables in the model

Table 2. Classification and analysis methods of variables

Table 2. Classification and analysis methods of variables

Table 3. Afforestation costs of slash pine carbon sequestration forests per unit area

Table 3. Afforestation costs of slash pine carbon sequestration forests per unit area

Table 4. Calculation results of the critical threshold of optimal investment timing and option value of carbon sequestration afforestation project

Table 4. Calculation results of the critical threshold of optimal investment timing and option value of carbon sequestration afforestation project