<trans-title>Quantitative evaluation on supply security of the sources of crude oil imports for China</trans-title>

Kong-chao ZHU; Shu-wen NIU; Yuan ZHAO; Xin QIU

doi:10.31497/zrzyxb.20201106

Journal of Natural Resources, Volume. 35, Issue 11, 2629(2020)

Quantitative evaluation on supply security of the sources of crude oil imports for China

Kong-chao ZHU1...2, Shu-wen NIU2,3, Yuan ZHAO1,4,5,* and Xin QIU2 |Show fewer author(s)

Author Affiliations

¹School of Geography Science, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210023

²College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China

³Key Laboratory of Western China's Environmental Systems (Ministry of Education), Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China

⁴Jinling College, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210097, China

⁵Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application, Nanjing 210023, China

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Figures & Tables(10)

Fig. 1. The numerical standard of bilateral relations

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Fig. 2. The bilateral relations between China and its 21 major crude oil suppliers

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Fig. 3. The bilateral relations between China and six countries with great influences on the Strait of Malacca

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Fig. 4. The supply security level of China's 21 crude oil suppliers

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Fig. 5. Two-dimensional distribution of bilateral relations and exporting supply security level

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Table 1. Evaluation indicator system for supply security of China's crude oil suppliers

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Table 1. Evaluation indicator system for supply security of China's crude oil suppliers

一级指标	权重	二级指标	2015年权重
一级指标	权重	二级指标	熵值权重	AHP权重	组合权重
资源因素M₁	0.399	原油产量N₁	0.126	0.113	0.125
		原油储产比N₂	0.147	0.113	0.135
		原油出口潜力N₃	0.155	0.113	0.139
政治因素M₂	0.245	政治风险N₄	0.098	0.196	0.145
政治因素M₂	0.245	双边关系N₅	0.093	0.098	0.100
经济因素M₃	0.136	对中国原油出口价格N₆	0.036	0.031	0.035
		对中国原油出口价格方差N₇	0.038	0.031	0.036
		经济风险N₈	0.031	0.031	0.032
		金融风险N₉	0.033	0.031	0.033
运输因素M₄	0.126	运输风险指数N₁₀	0.074	0.195	0.126
军事因素M₅	0.094	军费支出N₁₁	0.169	0.048	0.094

Table 2. Type classification of bilateral relations between China and its 21 major crude oil suppliers in 2018

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Table 2. Type classification of bilateral relations between China and its 21 major crude oil suppliers in 2018

关系类型	分值标准	国家
中水平友好	7.7≤ 双边关系<8.4	俄罗斯（8.2）、哈萨克斯坦（8）
高水平良好	6≤ 双边关系<6.9	马来西亚（6.8）、委内瑞拉（6.6）、沙特阿拉伯（6.5）、伊朗（6.5）、巴西（6.4）
		苏丹（6.2）、刚果（布）（6.2）、尼日利亚（6.1）
中水平良好	5≤ 双边关系<6	科威特（6）、澳大利亚（5.8）、安哥拉（5.7）、阿联酋（5.6）、卡塔尔（5.5）
		越南（5.5）、伊拉克（5.4）、印度尼西亚（5.1）、也门（5）
低水平良好	3.9≤ 双边关系<5	阿曼（4.9）、利比亚（4）

Table 3. Classification standard of supply security type in China's 21 countries in 2015
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Table 3. Classification standard of supply security type in China's 21 countries in 2015
划分标准 0<S≤M-SD M-SD<S≤M M<S≤M+SD M+SD<S
安全类型低安全型中低安全型中高安全型高安全型

Table 4. Security type classification for China's 21 major crude oil suppliers in 2015

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Table 4. Security type classification for China's 21 major crude oil suppliers in 2015

安全类型	分值标准	国家
高安全型	0.638<安全度	沙特阿拉伯（0.749）、俄罗斯（0.655）、阿联酋（0.650)、科威特（0.639）
中高安全型	0.517<安全度≤ 0.638	伊朗（0.625）、委内瑞拉（0.620）、伊拉克（0.566）、利比亚（0.566）
		哈萨克斯坦（0.552）、卡塔尔（0.546）、马来西亚（0.544）、澳大利亚（0.534）
中低安全型	0.396<安全度≤ 0.517	尼日利亚（0.482）、巴西（0.469）、越南（0.449）、阿曼（0.436）
		安哥拉（0.429）
低安全型	0<安全度≤ 0.396	印度尼西亚（0.362）、也门（0.356）、刚果（布）（0.347）、苏丹（0.280）

Table 5. The main obstacle factors of supply security level for China's 21 suppliers

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Table 5. The main obstacle factors of supply security level for China's 21 suppliers

国家	1		2		3		4		5
国家	障碍因素	障碍度	障碍因素	障碍度	障碍因素	障碍度	障碍因素	障碍度	障碍因素	障碍度
沙特阿拉伯	N₁₀	28.9	N₂	26.2	N₅	13	N₄	12.4	N₃	6.7
俄罗斯	N₂	23.1	N₃	22.2	N₁₀	19.6	N₄	15	N₁₁	4.8
阿联酋	N₁₀	19.8	N₂	17	N₃	15	N₁	13.6	N₁₁	11
科威特	N₁₀	19.3	N₂	15.4	N₃	14.7	N₁	14.3	N₁₁	13.6
伊朗	N₁₀	18.2	N₃	15.7	N₂	12.9	N₁	12.4	N₄	11.7
委内瑞拉	N₄	24.1	N₁	22.7	N₁₀	18.2	N₁₁	18	N₅	6.9
利比亚	N₁₀	16.7	N₁	16	N₃	15.5	N₅	13.3	N₄	12.6
伊拉克	N₄	18.6	N₁₀	16.9	N₂	13.3	N₁₁	11.5	N₅	11.3
哈萨克斯坦	N₃	18.1	N₂	17.8	N₁₀	17	N₁	15.5	N₁₁	13.3
卡塔尔	N₃	18.5	N₁₀	17.5	N₂	16.8	N₁	15	N₁₁	12.8
马来西亚	N₃	18.8	N₂	18.2	N₁₀	17.1	N₁	16.1	N₁₁	12.2
澳大利亚	N₃	19.4	N₂	17.9	N₁₀	17.8	N₁	17.2	N₁₁	9.8
尼日利亚	N₁₀	15.3	N₂	14.7	N₄	14.4	N₃	14.3	N₁	12.2
巴西	N₃	18.5	N₂	18.2	N₁₀	17	N₁	13	N₁₁	9.1
越南	N₃	16.7	N₁₀	15.3	N₂	15.2	N₁	14.8	N₁₁	10.9
阿曼	N₃	17.4	N₂	17	N₁₀	15.9	N₁	14.6	N₅	11.2
安哥拉	N₂	16.3	N₃	16.2	N₁₀	15.2	N₁	13	N₄	11.5
印度尼西亚	N₃	17.1	N₂	16.7	N₁₀	15.6	N₁	14.4	N₄	10.7
也门	N₃	16.6	N₄	15.8	N₁₀	15.1	N₁	15	N₁₁	11
刚果（布）	N₃	17.1	N₂	16.5	N₁₀	15.5	N₁	15.2	N₁₁	11.6
苏丹	N₄	16.2	N₃	15.5	N₁₀	14.1	N₁	13.9	N₂	13.8

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Kong-chao ZHU, Shu-wen NIU, Yuan ZHAO, Xin QIU. Quantitative evaluation on supply security of the sources of crude oil imports for China[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2020, 35(11): 2629

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Paper Information

Received: May. 24, 2019

Accepted: --

Published Online: May. 8, 2021

The Author Email: ZHAO Yuan (zhaoyuan@njnu.edu.cn)

DOI:10.31497/zrzyxb.20201106

Topics

Resource Economy

Research Articles

Table 1. Evaluation indicator system for supply security of China's crude oil suppliers

Table 1. Evaluation indicator system for supply security of China's crude oil suppliers

Table 2. Type classification of bilateral relations between China and its 21 major crude oil suppliers in 2018

Table 2. Type classification of bilateral relations between China and its 21 major crude oil suppliers in 2018

Table 3. Classification standard of supply security type in China's 21 countries in 2015

Table 3. Classification standard of supply security type in China's 21 countries in 2015

Table 4. Security type classification for China's 21 major crude oil suppliers in 2015

Table 4. Security type classification for China's 21 major crude oil suppliers in 2015

Table 5. The main obstacle factors of supply security level for China's 21 suppliers

Table 5. The main obstacle factors of supply security level for China's 21 suppliers

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