Influence of human factors on emergency evacuation efficiency of nuclear power plant accident

Fei LUAN; Chunhua CHEN; Fang RUAN; Yuan CHENG; Jingxian ZHU; Jianye WANG

doi:10.11889/j.1000-3436.2022-0128

Journal of Radiation Research and Radiation Processing, Volume. 41, Issue 4, 040602(2023)

Influence of human factors on emergency evacuation efficiency of nuclear power plant accident

Fei LUAN1...2, Chunhua CHEN1,*, Fang RUAN1,2, Yuan CHENG1,2, Jingxian ZHU1 and Jianye WANG1 |Show fewer author(s)

Author Affiliations

¹Hefei Institutes of Physical Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hefei 230031, China

²University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026, China

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Figures & Tables(13)

Fig. 1. Verification flow chart of nuclear emergency evacuation prediction model

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Fig. 2. Logistic regression model building flow chart

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Fig. 3. Flow chart of multiple Logistic regression model building

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Fig. 4. Partial evacuation roadmap

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Fig. 5. Wind roses over Dapeng Peninsula

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Table 1. Chi-square test and Logistic regression model of independent variable assignment

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Table 1. Chi-square test and Logistic regression model of independent variable assignment

变量	变量名	赋值情况
Variable	Name of variable	Case of assignment
年龄/岁 Age	X₁	18~25=0; 26~35=1; 36~55=2; >55=3
性别 Gender	X₂	男=0；女=1 Male=0; Female=1
职业 Professional	X₃	学生=0；技术人员=1；服务业人员=2；生产运输人员=3；其他=4 Students=0; Technical personnel=1; Service workers=2; Transportation personnel=3; Other=4
学历 Education	X₄	专科=0；本科=1；研究生=2；其他=3 Specialized subject=0; Undergraduate course=1; Graduate student=2; Other=3
是否购买过核安全相关保险 Has purchased nuclear safety related insurance	X₅	买过=0；没买过=1 Bought=0; Didn't buy it=1
参加过的核应急疏散演习次数/次 Number of nuclear emergency evacuation drills participated	X₆	0=0; 1=1; 2=2; >3=3
对核应急疏散的了解情况 Knowledge of nuclear emergency evacuation	X₇	不了解=0；有一定了解=1；基本了解=2；Out of touch=0; Have some understanding=1; Basic understanding=2
家中有无核应急防护措施 The home has non-nuclear emergency protection measures	X₈	没有=0；有=1 No=0; Yes=1
知晓周围辐射避难所数量/个 Know the number of radiation shelters around	X₉	0=0; 1=1; 2=2; >3=3

Table 2. Dependent variable assignment in Chi-square test and Logistic regression model

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Table 2. Dependent variable assignment in Chi-square test and Logistic regression model

变量

变量名

赋值情况

Variable

Name of

variable

Case of assignment

是否给政府提供核疏散意见

Whether to provide the government with nuclear evacuation advice

Y₁

会=0；不会=1

Yes=0; No=1

听到核事故疏散警报后反应

Reaction after hearing evacuation warning of nuclear accident

Y₂

立即撤退=0；等待救援=1

Get out at once=0; Waiting for rescue=1

核应急疏散中发生拥挤选择

Crowded options occur in nuclear emergency evacuation

Y₃

排队等待=0；寻找其他通道=1

Wait in line=0; Find another way=1

倾向的辐射避难所选择

Preference for radiation shelter selection

Y₄

露天避难所=0；封闭避难所=1

Open shelter=0; Closed shelter=1

核事故疏散路线选择

Nuclear accident evacuation route selection

Y₅

指示疏散路线=0；随机疏散路线=1

Indicated evacuation route=0; Random evacuation route=1

认为核应急疏散所需的时间 / h

The time considered necessary for a nuclear emergency evacuation

Y₆

<1=0; 1~5=1; 6~12=2; >24=3

对周围核设施是否有足够信任

Have enough trust in the surrounding nuclear facilities

Y₇

有=0；没有=1

Yes=0; No=1

Table 3. Pearson chi-square test significance P-value results (single factor)

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Table 3. Pearson chi-square test significance P-value results (single factor)

自变量 Independent variable	因变量 Dependent variable
自变量 Independent variable	Y₁	Y₂	Y₃	Y₄	Y₅	Y₆	Y₇
X₁	0.450	0.965	0.450	0.119	0.850	0.333	<0.01
X₂	0.927	0.841	0.902	<0.01	0.332	0.844	0.282
X₃	0.787	0.086	0.963	0.098	0.594	0.286	0.566
X₄	0.181	0.387	0.612	0.472	0.068	0.441	0.160
X₅	<0.01	0.054	0.077	0.121	0.311	0.252	0.028
X₆	<0.01	0.200	0.110	0.020	0.265	0.650	0.127
X₇	<0.01	0.443	0.040	0.032	0.434	<0.01	0.087
X₈	<0.01	0.150	<0.01	0.121	0.756	0.669	0.067
X₉	<0.01	0.350	0.626	0.367	0.743	0.464	0.082

Table 4. Regression coefficient analysis results in binary Logistic regression model

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Table 4. Regression coefficient analysis results in binary Logistic regression model

自变量 Independent variable	因变量Dependent variable
自变量 Independent variable	Y₁	Y₂	Y₃	Y₄	Y₅	Y₇
X₁	–	–	–	–	–	1.395
X₂	–	–	–	-1.110	–	–
X₃	–	–	–	-	–	–
X₄	–	–	–	-	–	–
X₅	2.519	–	–	-	–	0.858
X₆	-0.855	–	–	-1.480	–	–
X₇	-1.522	–	-1.104	-0.787	–	–
X₈	-2.191	–	-0.831	–	–	–
X₉	-0.797	–	–	–	–	–
常量 Constant	3.233	–	1.969	0.979	–	-2.701

Table 5. Table of the significant influence of different variables on Y₆

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Table 5. Table of the significant influence of different variables on Y₆

个人预估疏散时间Y₆ Personal estimate of evacuation time	对当地疏散的了解情况X₇ Knowledge of local evacuations	显著性P Significance	回归系数B Coefficient of regression	OR
1~5 h之间 Between 1 and 5 hours	X₇= 0	0.004	-1.962	0.141
	X₇= 1	0.032	-1.400	0.247
	X₇= 2
6~12 h之间 Between 6 and 12 hours	X₇= 0	0.011	-2.185	0.113
	X₇= 1	0.011	-2.015	0.133
	X₇= 2
1 d以上 More than one day	X₇= 0	0.220	-1.674	0.188
	X₇= 1	0.059	-2.890	0.056
	X₇= 2

Table 6. Evacuation route parameters for private and public vehicles

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Table 6. Evacuation route parameters for private and public vehicles

公交车路线 Bus route	路线长度 / km Length of route	路线参数 Parameter of route
滨海花园—家家乐百货附近小区 Binhai Garden — the neighborhood near the department store	27.0	U_s= 50、a₁ = 1.4、a₂= 1.88、a₃= 6.97
	15.1	U_s= 50、a₁ = 1.4、a₂= 1.88、a₃= 6.97
	16.0	U_s=50、a₁= 1.4、a₂= 1.88、a₃= 6.97
私家车路线 Private car route	路线长度 / km Length of route	路线参数 Parameter of route
滨海花园—家家乐百货附近小区 Binhai Garden — the neighborhood near the department store	15.4	U_s= 80、a₁= 0.95、a₂= 1.88、a₃= 6.97
	15.4	U_s=80、a₁= 0.95、a₂= 1.88、a₃= 6.97
	18.5	U_s=80、a₁= 0.95、a₂= 1.88、a₃=6.97

Table 7. Road traffic attenuation factor map under different meteorological conditions

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Table 7. Road traffic attenuation factor map under different meteorological conditions

天气条件 Weather conditions	交通容量减弱因子 / % Traffic capacity attenuation factor	速度减弱因子 / % Velocity weakening factor
正常 Normal	100	100
不利—大雨 Negative— Heavy rain	90	50
不利—大雪或结冰 Negative— Heavy snow or ice	85	50
不利—大雾 Negative — Fog	75	50

Table 8. The fastest evacuation time route table of different vehicle types

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Table 8. The fastest evacuation time route table of different vehicle types

私家车总交通负荷/（pcu∙h^-1） Total traffic load of private cars	最快疏散时间道路交通负荷/（pcu∙h^-1） Fastest evacuation time road traffic load	平均疏散时间t / h Time of evacuation	公交车总交通负荷/（pcu∙h^-1） Total bus traffic load	最快疏散时间道路交通负荷 /（pcu∙h^-1） Fastest evacuation time road traffic load	平均疏散时间t/ h Time of evacuation
0.857	0.25	0.670	1.560	0.00
	0.59					0.62	0.955
	0.00					0.93
1.714	0.68		1.453	0.00
	0.68	0.718			0.58	0.955
	0.34				0.87
2.571	0.77		1.347	0.00
	1.02	1.075			0.40	0.955
	0.77				0.94

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Fei LUAN, Chunhua CHEN, Fang RUAN, Yuan CHENG, Jingxian ZHU, Jianye WANG. Influence of human factors on emergency evacuation efficiency of nuclear power plant accident[J]. Journal of Radiation Research and Radiation Processing, 2023, 41(4): 040602

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Paper Information

Category: Research Articles

Received: Nov. 28, 2022

Accepted: Jan. 10, 2023

Published Online: Sep. 21, 2023

The Author Email:

DOI:10.11889/j.1000-3436.2022-0128

Topics

laser devices and laser physics

Lasers and Laser Optics

Laser physics

laser manufacturing

Instrumentation, Measurement and Metrology

Table 1. Chi-square test and Logistic regression model of independent variable assignment

Table 1. Chi-square test and Logistic regression model of independent variable assignment

Table 2. Dependent variable assignment in Chi-square test and Logistic regression model

Table 2. Dependent variable assignment in Chi-square test and Logistic regression model

Table 3. Pearson chi-square test significance P-value results (single factor)

Table 3. Pearson chi-square test significance P-value results (single factor)

Table 4. Regression coefficient analysis results in binary Logistic regression model

Table 4. Regression coefficient analysis results in binary Logistic regression model

Table 5. Table of the significant influence of different variables on Y6

Table 5. Table of the significant influence of different variables on Y6

Table 6. Evacuation route parameters for private and public vehicles

Table 6. Evacuation route parameters for private and public vehicles

Table 7. Road traffic attenuation factor map under different meteorological conditions

Table 7. Road traffic attenuation factor map under different meteorological conditions

Table 8. The fastest evacuation time route table of different vehicle types

Table 8. The fastest evacuation time route table of different vehicle types

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Table 5. Table of the significant influence of different variables on Y₆

Table 5. Table of the significant influence of different variables on Y₆