Central Asian geo-relation networks: Evolution and driving forces

Yun WANG; Yi LIU

doi:10.1007/s11442-020-1810-z

Journal of Geographical Sciences, Volume. 30, Issue 11, 1739(2020)

Central Asian geo-relation networks: Evolution and driving forces

Yun WANG^1,2,3 and Yi LIU^1,2,3、*

¹Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China

²College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

³Institute of Strategy Research for the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, Guangzhou 510070, China

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Figures & Tables(11)

Fig. 1. Degree centrality of Central Asian countries in the diplomatic relations network, 1993-2013

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Fig. 2. World IGO connection with Central Asia, by country, 1993-2013

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Fig. 3. Degree centrality of Central Asian countries in diplomatic relations and IGO connection networks, 1993-2013

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Fig. 4. The blocks of world IGO networks as determined by CONCOR

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Table 1.
The determinants of a country’s degree of importance in the Central Asian geopolitical network

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Table 1.
The determinants of a country’s degree of importance in the Central Asian geopolitical network

Hypotheses and number	Proxy	Expected sign	Data source
A country’s degree of importance in the Central Asian geopolitical network (dependent variable)	ICAN: The length of time over which formal diplomatic relations have been established with a Central Asian country	+	Diplomatic Dashboard
Economic power (H1)	GDP: the country’s GDP in the year when it established diplomatic relations with Central Asian countries	+	World Bank development indicator
Identity as a post-Soviet state (H2a)	PS: = 1 when the country is a post-Soviet state	+	…
Membership of NATO (H2b)	NATO: = 1 when the country is a member of NATO	+	Official NATO website
Membership of OIC(H3)	OIC: = 1 when the country is a member of the OIC	+	Official OIC website
Military power (H4)	ME: the country’s military expenditure in the year when it established diplomatic relations with Central Asian countries	+	World Bank development indicator
Distance (H5a)	DS: the geographical distance between the two capitals	_	The GeoDist Database
Neighboring country (H5b)	NC: = 1 when the country is a neighboring country of the Central Asian countries	+	…

Table 2.
The proposed variables in this study

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Table 2.
The proposed variables in this study

Variable	Introduction	Mean	SD
GDP	The country’s GDP in the year when it established diplomatic relations with Central Asian countries (billions of USD)	642	1480
PS	= 1 when the country is a post-Soviet state	0.23	0.42
NATO	= 1 when the country is a member of NATO	0.22	0.42
OIC	= 1 when the country is a member of the OIC	0.37	0.48
ME	The country’s military expenditure in the year when it established diplomatic relations with Central Asian countries (billions of USD)	15.9	44.2
DS	Geographical distance between the two capitals (km)	3733.51	2269.14
NC	= 1 when the country is a neighboring country of Central Asia	0.11	0.31

Table 3.
The correlation matrix

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Table 3.
The correlation matrix

	ICAN	GDP	PS	NATO	OIC	ME	DS	NC
ICAN	1.0000
GDP	0.1978	1.0000
PS	0.1241	-0.2199	1.0000
NATO	0.1738	0.3675	-0.2369	1.0000
OIC	-0.1146	-0.2974	0.1236	-0.2886	1.0000
ME	0.1737	0.8824	-0.1798	0.3868	-0.2031	1.0000
DS	-0.0592	0.5240	-0.3973	0.2608	-0.4209	0.4907	1.0000
NC	0.1965	-0.1202	0.3311	-0.1833	0.3191	-0.1058	-0.3239	1.0000

Table 4.
Variance inflation factor test for the OLS regression model
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Table 4.
Variance inflation factor test for the OLS regression model
Kazakhstan Uzbekistan Central Asia
GDP 7.32 15.16 8.37
PS 2.12 2.33 1.73
NATO 1.22 1.50 1.24
OIC 1.54 1.71 1.56
ME 7.60 13.79 8.14
DS 2.24 2.76 1.73
NC 1.48 1.88 1.24
Mean VIF 3.36 5.59 3.43

Table 5.
Description of the IGO connection network for Central Asian countries in 2013
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Table 5.
Description of the IGO connection network for Central Asian countries in 2013
Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan Uzbekistan Turkmenistan
IGO membership 51 45 42 40 35
Average weight 7.82 9.26 10.18 9.40 8.79
Centrality 386.30 399.73 402.02 372.71 303.85

Table 6.
The determinants of a country' s degree of importance in the Central Asian geopolitical network
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Table 6.
The determinants of a country' s degree of importance in the Central Asian geopolitical network

Table 7.
Determinants of a country’s degree of importance in the Central Asian geopolitical network

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Table 7.
Determinants of a country’s degree of importance in the Central Asian geopolitical network

Region/country	Period	Driving factors (sorted by coefficient value, from largest to smallest)
Central Asia	1993-2013	NC, NATO, GDP, PS, DS (-)
Central Asia	1993-1995	PS, OIC, ME, NC
Central Asia	1996-2001	NC, PS, GDP
Central Asia	2002-2008	OIC, GDP, ME (-)
Kazakhstan	1993-2013	GDP, ME (-), DS (-)
Uzbekistan	1993-2013	PS, GDP

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Yun WANG, Yi LIU. Central Asian geo-relation networks: Evolution and driving forces[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2020, 30(11): 1739

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Paper Information

Received: Mar. 21, 2020

Accepted: Jul. 27, 2020

Published Online: May. 7, 2021

The Author Email: LIU Yi (liuy@igsnrr.ac.cn)

DOI:10.1007/s11442-020-1810-z

Topics

Resource Economy

Research Articles

Table 1. The determinants of a country’s degree of importance in the Central Asian geopolitical network

Table 1. The determinants of a country’s degree of importance in the Central Asian geopolitical network

Table 2. The proposed variables in this study

Table 2. The proposed variables in this study

Table 3. The correlation matrix

Table 3. The correlation matrix

Table 4. Variance inflation factor test for the OLS regression model

Table 4. Variance inflation factor test for the OLS regression model

Table 5. Description of the IGO connection network for Central Asian countries in 2013

Table 5. Description of the IGO connection network for Central Asian countries in 2013

Table 6. The determinants of a country' s degree of importance in the Central Asian geopolitical network

Table 6. The determinants of a country' s degree of importance in the Central Asian geopolitical network

Table 7. Determinants of a country’s degree of importance in the Central Asian geopolitical network

Table 7. Determinants of a country’s degree of importance in the Central Asian geopolitical network

Table 1.
The determinants of a country’s degree of importance in the Central Asian geopolitical network

Table 1.
The determinants of a country’s degree of importance in the Central Asian geopolitical network

Table 2.
The proposed variables in this study

Table 2.
The proposed variables in this study

Table 3.
The correlation matrix

Table 3.
The correlation matrix

Table 4.
Variance inflation factor test for the OLS regression model

Table 4.
Variance inflation factor test for the OLS regression model

Table 5.
Description of the IGO connection network for Central Asian countries in 2013

Table 5.
Description of the IGO connection network for Central Asian countries in 2013

Table 6.
The determinants of a country' s degree of importance in the Central Asian geopolitical network

Table 6.
The determinants of a country' s degree of importance in the Central Asian geopolitical network

Table 7.
Determinants of a country’s degree of importance in the Central Asian geopolitical network

Table 7.
Determinants of a country’s degree of importance in the Central Asian geopolitical network