Journal of Natural Resources, Volume. 35, Issue 2, 358(2020)
Climate change and future trends in the Agro-Pastoral Transitional Zone in Northern China: The comprehensive analysis with the historical observation and the model simulation
Figures & Tables(12)
Fig. 4. The climate change in each climatic area from 1971 to 2015
Fig. 5. The change of regional mean annual temperature from 2006 to 2050 under different RCPs
Fig. 6. The change of regional mean annual precipitation from 2006 to 2050 under different RCPs
Table 1. The information about global climate model and regional climate model
View tableView in ArticleTable 1. The information about global climate model and regional climate model
模式类型 模式名称 国家 研究机构 空间分辨率/(°) 参考文献 全球气候模式 BNU 中国 北京师范大学 2.8125×2.8125 吴其重等[ 22 ]CanESM 2 加拿大 CCCma 2.8125×2.8125 Chylek等[ 23 ]CCSM 4 美国 NCAR 0.9375×1.25 Peacock[ 24 ]IPSL-CM5A-LR 法国 IPSL 1.875×3.75 Dufresne等[ 25 ]MPI-ESM-LR 德国 MPI 1.875×1.875 Stevens等[ 26 ]MRI-CGCM3 日本 MRI 1.125×1.125 Yukimoto等[ 27 ]NorESM1-M 挪威 NCC 1.875×2.5 Bentsen等[ 28 ]区域气候模式 RegCM 4.0 中国 国家气候中心 1×1 Giorgi等[ 29 ]
Table 2. The regional climate change from 2006 to 2050
View tableView in ArticleTable 2. The regional climate change from 2006 to 2050
排放情景 气候分区 变化趋势值 气温/(℃/10 a) 降水/(mm/10 a) GCM RCM GCM RCM RCP 2.6 西部区 0.23* 0.28* 6.70 -11.20* 中西部区 0.28* 0.20* 3.02 3.58 中东部区 0.32* 0.21* 5.08 -4.27 东部区 0.31* 0.20* 8.81* 2.70 RCP 4.5 西部区 0.36* 0.26* 5.75 13.86* 中西部区 0.39* 0.33* 6.47 6.82* 中东部区 0.39* 0.29* 15.44* 21.80* 东部区 0.37* 0.28* 16.12* 19.12* RCP 8.5 西部区 0.50* 0.52* 13.10* 21.64* 中西部区 0.49* 0.45* 18.03* 17.36* 中东部区 0.48* 0.43* 12.10* 15.71* 东部区 0.42* 0.46* 11.35* 10.64*
Table 3. The comparison of seven global climate models
View tableView in ArticleTable 3. The comparison of seven global climate models
模式 多年平均气温/℃ 气温变化速率/(℃/10 a) 多年平均降水量/mm 降水变化速率/(mm/10 a) BNU 6.73 0.36* 1143.08 -10.35 CanESM 2 8.71 0.47* 886.30 38.84* CCSM 4 5.91 0.33* 766.64 9.38* IPSL-CM5A-LR 3.66 0.45* 705.27 15.65* MPI-ESM-LR 7.96 0.32* 864.82 -2.30 MRI-CGCM 3 5.16 0.30* 415.91 15.03* NorESM1-M 4.34 0.40* 810.67 17.88*
Table 4. The reliability assessment of global climate models
View tableView in ArticleTable 4. The reliability assessment of global climate models
模式 温度 降水 Slope/(℃/10 a) R 2Slope/(mm/10 a) R 2BNU 0.43 0.20 12.06 0.01 CanESM2 0.38 0.24 -5.78 0.002 CCSM4 0.20 0.16 7.37 0.03 IPSL-CM5A-LR 0.39 0.22 5.32 0.01 MPI-ESM-LR 0.25 0.17 -16.83 0.06 MRI-CGCM3 0.20 0.06 -12.49 0.002 NorESM1-M 0.37 0.41 4.35 0.03 多模式平均值 0.32 0.48 -0.86 0.06
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Zi-hang FANG, Chun-yang HE, Zhi-feng LIU, Yuan-yuan ZHAO, Yan-jie YANG. Climate change and future trends in the Agro-Pastoral Transitional Zone in Northern China: The comprehensive analysis with the historical observation and the model simulation[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2020, 35(2): 358
Paper Information
Received: Dec. 26, 2018
Accepted: --
Published Online: Sep. 25, 2020
The Author Email: HE Chun-yang (hcy@bnu.edu.cn)
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