Population, urbanization and economic scenarios over the Belt and Road region under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Cheng JING; Hui TAO; Tong JIANG; Yanjun WANG; Jianqing ZHAI; Lige CAO; Buda SU

doi:10.1007/s11442-020-1715-x

Journal of Geographical Sciences, Volume. 30, Issue 1, 68(2020)

Population, urbanization and economic scenarios over the Belt and Road region under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Cheng JING1...1,1,1,1,1,1,1, Hui TAO1,1,1,1, Tong JIANG1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,*, Yanjun WANG1,1,1,1, Jianqing ZHAI1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1, Lige CAO1,1,1,1, and Buda SU1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,11 |Show fewer author(s)

Author Affiliations

¹1State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, CAS, Urumqi 830011, China

¹2Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Institute for Disaster Risk Management/School of Geographical Science, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing Jiangsu 210044, China

¹3National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China

¹4University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

show less

Figures & Tables(9)

Fig. 1. Location of the Belt and Road region

Download full size

View in Article

Fig. 2. Changes in the population, urbanization level and GDP in the Belt and Road region for 1990-2016

Download full size

View in Article

Fig. 3. Distribution of the population (a), urbanization (b) and economy (c) in the Belt and Road countries in 2016

Download full size

View in Article

Fig. 4. Projections of the population (a), urbanization (b) and economy (c) in the Belt and Road region for 2020-2050

Download full size

View in Article

Fig. 5. Changes in the population, urbanization and GDP throughout the Belt and Road region in 2050 compared with 2016

Download full size

View in Article

Fig. 6. Comparisons of the annual population (a), urbanization (b) and GDP (c) in the Belt and Road region in 2050 with the 2016 levels

Download full size

View in Article

Table 1.
Assumptions of the key influencing factors on the population and economy for the SSPs

View table

View in Article

Table 1.
Assumptions of the key influencing factors on the population and economy for the SSPs

	SSP1	SSP2	SSP3	SSP4	SSP5
Fertility	Low	Medium	High	Low	Low
Mortality	Low	Medium	High	Medium	Low
Migration	Medium	Medium	Low	Medium	High
Education	High (FT)	Medium (GET)	Low (CER)	Low (CER)	High (FT)
TFP growth	Medium	Medium	Low	Medium	High

Table 2.
Assumptions of total fertility rate for the urban and rural populations in China

View table

View in Article

Table 2.
Assumptions of total fertility rate for the urban and rural populations in China

Year		2010	2020	2030	2040	2050
Urban	Low	1.19	1.24	1.29	1.25	1.21
	Medium	1.19	1.61	1.61	1.61	1.61
	High	1.19	1.56	1.93	1.97	2.01
Rural	Low	1.19	1.35	1.51	1.46	1.42
	Medium	1.64	1.89	1.89	1.89	1.89
	High	1.19	1.61	1.61	1.61	1.61
Total	Low	1.19	1.28	1.37	1.31	1.25
	Medium	1.45	1.72	1.71	1.68	1.66
	High	1.19	1.61	1.61	1.61	1.61

Table 3.
Three countries with the fastest and slowest growth in 2050 with relative to 2016

View table

View in Article

Table 3.
Three countries with the fastest and slowest growth in 2050 with relative to 2016

Countries(Rate of changes)	Population		Urbanization		GDP
Countries(Rate of changes)	Top three	Last three	Top three	Last three	Top three	Last three
SSP1	Bahrain (108%)	Moldova (-40%)	Nepal (195%)	Israel (1%)	TLS (1594%)	Azerbaijan (26%)
	Afghanistan (75%)	Lebanon (-22%)	Cambodia (167%)	Kuwait (2%)	Syria (1505%)	Singapore (62%)
	ARE (72%)	Tajikistan (-19)	Sri Lanka (160%)	Lebanon (5%)	Bhutan (949%)	Kazakhstan (67%)
SSP2	Bahrain (125%)	Moldova (-39%)	Nepal (103%)	Israel (1%)	Syria (1235%)	Azerbaijan (7%)
	Afghanistan (117%)	Lebanon (-17%)	Cambodia (87%)	Kuwait (2%)	TLS (977%)	Myanmar (40%)
	Yemen (105%)	Belarus (-14)	Tajikistan (82%)	Lebanon (5%)	Bhutan (845%)	Kazakhstan (47%)
SSP3	Afghanistan (164%)	Moldova (-24%)	Nepal (46%)	Thailand (-21%)	Syria (1235%)	Azerbaijan (-11%)
	Yemen (152%)	Hungary (-22%)	BIH (41%)	Indonesia (-9%)	TLS (977%)	Myanmar (3%)
	TLS (143%)	Poland (-18%)	Cambodia (33%)	Mongolia (-7%)	Bhutan (845%)	Romania (18%)
SSP4	Afghanistan (153%)	Moldova (-42%)	Nepal (195%)	Israel (1%)	Syria (857%)	Myanmar (-28%)
	Yemen (149%)	Lebanon (-23%)	Cambodia (167%)	Kuwait (2%)	Bhutan (670%)	Azerbaijan (7%)
	Iraq (127%)	Belarus (-20%)	Sri Lanka (160%)	Lebanon (5%)	TLS (442%)	Romania (47%)
SSP5	Bahrain (144%)	Moldova (-50%)	Nepal (195%)	Israel (1%)	Syria (1888%)	Azerbaijan (63%)
	Israel (103%)	Tajikistan (-38%)	Cambodia (167%)	Kuwait (2%)	TLS (1621%)	Singapore (99%)
	ARE (101%)	Georgia (-27%)	Sri Lanka (160%)	Lebanon (5%)	Bhutan (1265%)	Lithuania (102%)

Tools

Get Citation

Copy Citation Text

Cheng JING, Hui TAO, Tong JIANG, Yanjun WANG, Jianqing ZHAI, Lige CAO, Buda SU. Population, urbanization and economic scenarios over the Belt and Road region under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2020, 30(1): 68

Download Citation

EndNote(RIS)BibTex Plain Text

Set citation alerts for article

Save article for my favorites

Paper Information

Received: Dec. 20, 2018

Accepted: Mar. 26, 2019

Published Online: Sep. 29, 2020

The Author Email: JIANG Tong (jiangtong@nuist.edu.cn)

DOI:10.1007/s11442-020-1715-x

Topics

Resource Economy

Research Articles

Table 1. Assumptions of the key influencing factors on the population and economy for the SSPs

Table 1. Assumptions of the key influencing factors on the population and economy for the SSPs

Table 2. Assumptions of total fertility rate for the urban and rural populations in China

Table 2. Assumptions of total fertility rate for the urban and rural populations in China

Table 3. Three countries with the fastest and slowest growth in 2050 with relative to 2016

Table 3. Three countries with the fastest and slowest growth in 2050 with relative to 2016

微信扫一扫：分享

Table 1.
Assumptions of the key influencing factors on the population and economy for the SSPs

Table 1.
Assumptions of the key influencing factors on the population and economy for the SSPs

Table 2.
Assumptions of total fertility rate for the urban and rural populations in China

Table 2.
Assumptions of total fertility rate for the urban and rural populations in China

Table 3.
Three countries with the fastest and slowest growth in 2050 with relative to 2016

Table 3.
Three countries with the fastest and slowest growth in 2050 with relative to 2016