The confirmation of agricultural land right is the institutional basis for the orderly transfer of farmland management rights, and institutional credibility of land confirmation system determines whether it can effectively work. This study constructed the analytical framework of confirmation of land right-institutional credibility of land confirmation system-farmers’willingness to transfer land, then examined the influence of the confirmation of land right on farmers’willingness to transfer land and the moderating effect of institutional credibility of land confirmation system. The results show that: First, confirmation of land right is conducive to clarifying and stabilizing farmland property rights, and the duration of confirmed land right has a significant positive impact on farmers’willingness to transfer land. At the same time, the effect of confirmation is lagging behind, the longer the time period of confirmed right, the stronger the willingness of farmers to transfer land. Second, institutional credibility has a significant moderating effect. The effective impact of the duration of confirmed agricultural land right on the willingness of farmers to transfer land is stronger in areas where the institutional credibility of land confirmation system is higher, and the weaker the converse. Therefore, we must fully consider the collective recognition of local farmers on the institutional credibility of land confirmation system. In areas with high institutional credibility, it is necessary to further strengthen the effective link between the land right confirmation system and related supporting policies, cultivate and standardize agricultural land transfer market, and consolidate and strengthen the effect of agricultural land right confirmation. In areas with low institutional credibility, we can continue to stabilize the contracting relationship of agricultural land, improve the credibility of the system, and leave a certain room for the development of the agricultural land right confirmation system.