High Power Laser and Particle Beams, Volume. 36, Issue 8, 085001(2024)

EMD-FFT-SARIMA photovoltaic power generation prediction model using fast fourier transform optimization cycle parameters

Chuanyu Xiong1... Xiaohong Liao1, Shiying He2,*, Ran Chen1, Wei Wang1, Nan Zang2,3, Ying Wang2,4, and Menghan Xiao56 |Show fewer author(s)
Author Affiliations
  • 1Economic and Technological Research Institute, State Grid Hubei Electric Power Co., Ltd. Wuhan 430000, China
  • 2Institute of Plasma Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hefei 230031, China
  • 3School of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering, Anhui Jianzhu University, Hefei 230601, China
  • 4Institutes of Physical Science and Information Technology, Anhui University, Hefei 230601, China
  • 5School of Electrical Engineering and Electronics, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, China
  • 6Electric Power Research Institute, State Grid Hubei Electric Power Co., Ltd. Wuhan 430000, China
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    In this paper, the photovoltaic (PV) power prediction model is optimized according to the characteristics of PV output units in distributed energy industrial parks to provide data support for the subsequent dispatching strategy. The EMD-SARIMA forecasting model is a combination of Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) and Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA). In the model, the problem of determining the period of each IMF component of the signal component is proposed, the period T calculation method incorporating fast Fourier transform (FFT) is proposed, and the obtained period is fed into SARIMA as an input parameter together with the IMF sequence for prediction, which constitutes the EMD-FFT-SARIMA prediction model. Then, the prediction results corresponding to each IMF are superimposed and reconstructed to obtain the final prediction results. The error calculation of the prediction results reveals that the root mean square error (RMSE) decreases from 120.6 MW to 19.3 MW, and the mean absolute error (MAE) decreases from 52.87 MW to 12.3 MW.

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    Chuanyu Xiong, Xiaohong Liao, Shiying He, Ran Chen, Wei Wang, Nan Zang, Ying Wang, Menghan Xiao. EMD-FFT-SARIMA photovoltaic power generation prediction model using fast fourier transform optimization cycle parameters[J]. High Power Laser and Particle Beams, 2024, 36(8): 085001

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    Paper Information

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    Received: Oct. 11, 2023

    Accepted: Mar. 11, 2024

    Published Online: Aug. 8, 2024

    The Author Email: He Shiying (shyinghe@ipp.ac.cn)

    DOI:10.11884/HPLPB202436.230349

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