Components of counting method is the general method of the reliability design of optoelectronic modules at home and abroad. In order to improve the problem that no mature optoelectronic modules the reliability prediction can not be effectively carried out, in product design stage by using Flow Simulation softwar, and working status of XFP (10G small form factor pluggable) module, for example, is simulation analyzed under different temperature conditions. The thermal analysis of XFP module is finished, and the optimization approach of the reliability design of XFP module is given. Then the specifically quantified of the reliability prediction of XFP module and is expected, the quantitative analysis of reliability for optoelectronic modules in the design phase is achieved.