BLASTING, Volume. 39, Issue 4, 186(2022)

Domino Effect Study of Tank Area Ignition and Explosion Accident based on Dynamic Bayesian Network

KE Te1, CHEN Xian-feng1, CHEN Yue1,2, HUANG Chu-yuan1, and LIU Li-juan1
Author Affiliations
  • 1[in Chinese]
  • 2[in Chinese]
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    A chemical storage tank area stores most of the inflammable and explosive toxic and dangerous chemicals.Once leakage occurs,it will cause ignition and explosion accidents,and the consequences will be unimaginable.Based on the dynamic Bayesian network method,an LNG and LPG storage tank area was selected to determine the evolution process of the accident domino effect,the time nodes of the accident process and the influence between different levels.With the help of Bayesian computing software,the domino effect analysis method of dynamic Bayesian network is proposed,and the thermal radiation value is calculated twice.Then,the extended probability of domino accident of each storage tank in four time periods of 0~37.55 min,37.55~47.55 min,47.55~52.55 min and 52.55~57.55 min was obtained by using the equipment damage probability model.Considering emergency measures for individual and multiple tanks,different levels of confidence are set to allocate different degrees of emergency rescue force to make the storage tank reach the safe state.Based on this,the accident probability of each accident storage tank at the critical moment is obtained under the condition of sufficient and limited emergency rescue force after the initial accident.The results imply that under the condition of sufficient emergency rescue force and limited emergency rescue force,priority should be given to taking emergency measures for the storage tank that has the greatest impact on the safety of the chemical industry park,which can greatly reduce the risk of ignition and explosion.

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    KE Te, CHEN Xian-feng, CHEN Yue, HUANG Chu-yuan, LIU Li-juan. Domino Effect Study of Tank Area Ignition and Explosion Accident based on Dynamic Bayesian Network[J]. BLASTING, 2022, 39(4): 186

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    Paper Information

    Received: Nov. 1, 2022

    Accepted: --

    Published Online: Jan. 26, 2024

    The Author Email:

    DOI:10.3963/j.issn.1001-487x.2022.04.027

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