Journal of Geo-information Science, Volume. 22, Issue 2, 187(2020)
Due to abruptness of typhoon storm surge, continuity of the evolution time and uncertainty of the path, it is hard for emergency decision-makers to make correct decisions in emergency rescue. To solve this problem, this article applies "scenario-response" to the typhoon storm surge. Firstly, based on the analysis of the typhoon storm surge scenarios and the conceptual model of the scenario elements, we extract the key scenario elements by means of data collection and attribute recognition. Then, we construct the dynamic scenario network of the typhoon storm surge by the method of frame representation. Secondly, we analysis the evolution and path of typhoon storm surge. Thirdly, we construct dynamic scenario network of typhoon storm surge with the dynamic Bayesian network method. Finally, we calculate the state probability of scenarios with the prior state probability and conditional probability and realize the key scenario deduction of the typhoon storm surge. In the end of the essay, we simulated an experiment for the influence of typhoon on the coastal cities of Guangdong Province from 11 to 17 on September 16 in 2018. The experiment results show that the probability of dykes, seawater inversion, floods and landslides respectively are 85%, 81%, 74%, 54%. The conclusion is drawn as follows: (1) The structure and content of each scenario element in the scenario construction process are different and interactional. Frame representation can reasonably characterize complex heterogeneous scenario elements data. (2) The evolution path of the situation is determined by many factors such as the situation itself, the disaster-bearing body, and emergency management. Decision makers need to comprehensively consider the emergency team and the rational use of resources when making decisions. (3) From the construction of the storm surge scenario to the deduction, the whole process has clear ideas and intuitive results, which is conducive to the promotion and application in marine disasters. The tentative application of "scenario-response" in storm surge events provides new emergency ideas and solutions for storm surge control.
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Wenli RAO, Nianxue LUO.
Received: Oct. 15, 2019
Accepted: --
Published Online: Sep. 16, 2020
The Author Email: LUO Nianxue (nxluo@sgg.whu.edu.cn)