The launched pulses for dense wavelength-division-multiplexing (DWDM) system with intensity modulated and direct-detection（IM/DD）scheme are assumed to be chirped Gaussian pulses. The pattern and initial phase of bit sequence in each channel are random. A statistical method is used to analyze these random quantities and a semi-analytic calculation model applied to evaluate the variance of degenerate four-wave-mixing (FWM) noise is obtained. The model also accounts for walk-off effect between channels. The results of calculation show that, to the value of deviation of degenerate FWM noise of chirped Gaussian pulse, not only the group velocity and channel separation are important, but also the initial delay of bit sequence of each channel and initial chirp of pulse are important in the case of small values of launched pulse width. It is also shown that, when the width of launched pulse is small, the change of pulse width with distance due to dispersion effect must be considered to avoid relative large error.