Electronics Optics & Control, Volume. 28, Issue 11, 79(2021)
On RUL Prediction Method Based on Bayesian Neural Network with Different Distribution Combinations
The equipment Remaining Useful Lifetime (RUL) prediction method based on dropout Neural Network (dropout NN) has low precision since it uses a Bayesian Neural Network (BNN) with fixed priori distribution and approximate posterior distribution.To solve the problem, we proposed a RUL prediction method based on BNN with Gaussian approximation posterior distribution and a RUL prediction method based on mixed Gaussian-Bernoulli network.The former introduces the mixed Gaussian distribution as priori distribution and then optimizes BNN by unbiased Monte Carlo estimation of parameter gradient, while the latter introduces a discretized Gaussian prior distribution to define KL divergence correctly, and then optimizes the BNN.The verification results on PHM 2012 bearing dataset show that the mixed Gaussian-Gaussian network has better effect than dropout NN, which proves that BNN with the changed distribution combination can obtain better prediction effect.
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HU Chenghao, HU Changhua. On RUL Prediction Method Based on Bayesian Neural Network with Different Distribution Combinations[J]. Electronics Optics & Control, 2021, 28(11): 79
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Received: Oct. 16, 2020
Accepted: --
Published Online: Dec. 13, 2021
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