Progress in Geography, Volume. 39, Issue 4, 636(2020)
Based on the hydrological data from 2003 to 2014, Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) was used to construct a daily runoff prediction model for the Ankang discharge station in the upper reaches of the Hanjiang River. The accuracy of daily runoff prediction was evaluated under different input conditions. The result shows that when the foreseeing period is one day, the efficiency coefficient of the LSTM in the calibration period and the validation period can reach 0.68 and 0.74 respectively under the condition that only the previous daily runoff of the Ankang Station is used as input. When the previous areal rainfall of the catchment and the previous daily runoff of the upstream Shiquan Station were added to the LSTM model as input variables, the daily runoff prediction precision was improved. The efficiency coefficient of the training period and the validation period could reach 0.83 and 0.84, respectively. The root mean square error was also significantly reduced. The accuracy of the main flood peak flow forecasting also increased. The LSTM can effectively avoid the problem of over-fitting, and has better generalization performance. However, when the foreseeable period is extended from one day to two or three days, the performance of LSTM is significantly reduced.
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Qingfang HU, Shiyi CAO, Huibin YANG, Yintang WANG, Linjie LI, Lihui WANG.
Received: Nov. 4, 2019
Accepted: --
Published Online: Oct. 16, 2020
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