Progress in Geography, Volume. 39, Issue 4, 636(2020)

Daily runoff predication using LSTM at the Ankang Station, Hanjing River

Qingfang HU1,1、*, Shiyi CAO1,1, Huibin YANG1,1,2,2, Yintang WANG1,1, Linjie LI1,1, and Lihui WANG2,2
Author Affiliations
  • 1State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210029, China
  • 1南京水利科学研究院水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,南京 210029
  • 2Department of Water Resources, Hydropower and PortEngineering, Fuzhou University, Fuzhou 350116, China
  • 2福州大学水利水电与港口工程系,福州 350116
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    Based on the hydrological data from 2003 to 2014, Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) was used to construct a daily runoff prediction model for the Ankang discharge station in the upper reaches of the Hanjiang River. The accuracy of daily runoff prediction was evaluated under different input conditions. The result shows that when the foreseeing period is one day, the efficiency coefficient of the LSTM in the calibration period and the validation period can reach 0.68 and 0.74 respectively under the condition that only the previous daily runoff of the Ankang Station is used as input. When the previous areal rainfall of the catchment and the previous daily runoff of the upstream Shiquan Station were added to the LSTM model as input variables, the daily runoff prediction precision was improved. The efficiency coefficient of the training period and the validation period could reach 0.83 and 0.84, respectively. The root mean square error was also significantly reduced. The accuracy of the main flood peak flow forecasting also increased. The LSTM can effectively avoid the problem of over-fitting, and has better generalization performance. However, when the foreseeable period is extended from one day to two or three days, the performance of LSTM is significantly reduced.

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    Qingfang HU, Shiyi CAO, Huibin YANG, Yintang WANG, Linjie LI, Lihui WANG. Daily runoff predication using LSTM at the Ankang Station, Hanjing River[J]. Progress in Geography, 2020, 39(4): 636

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    Paper Information

    Received: Nov. 4, 2019

    Accepted: --

    Published Online: Oct. 16, 2020

    The Author Email:

    DOI:10.18306/dlkxjz.2020.04.010

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