Journal of Radiation Research and Radiation Processing, Volume. 41, Issue 4, 040601(2023)

Consequence prediction in nuclear transport explosion accident using long short-term memory network

Lingpan RUAN1,2, Chunhua CHEN1、*, Liwei CHEN3, Fang RUAN1,2, Xiajuan LI2, and Jianye WANG1
Author Affiliations
  • 1Hefei Institutes of Physical Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hefei 230031, China
  • 2University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026, China
  • 3Hefei Normal University, Hefei 230026, China
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    During the transportation of components related to nuclear materials, accidental chemical explosions may occur, resulting in the release of radionuclides. Effective decision-making during nuclear transport accidents, especially in cases with incomplete source information and a complex terrain, requires the rapid prediction of changes in radionuclide concentration. This paper proposes a method for predicting the concentration of radionuclides resulting from nuclear transport explosion accidents based on stacked long short-term memory (LSTM) networks. Specifically, this study considered plutonium-containing explosive transport and chemical explosion accidents under the pad surface of a hill as a research scenario. The diffusion data of radionuclide Pu-239 were simulated using the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) software OpenFOAM. Nuclide concentration and meteorological time series data of a specific area were selected for stacked LSTM network training and prediction based on geographical characteristics and population density. The proposed model, optimized using grid search, can stably achieve a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of less than 5% within 150 iterations for Pu-239 nuclide concentration prediction. The model is highly efficient and has significant practical value for use in nuclear emergencies.

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    Lingpan RUAN, Chunhua CHEN, Liwei CHEN, Fang RUAN, Xiajuan LI, Jianye WANG. Consequence prediction in nuclear transport explosion accident using long short-term memory network[J]. Journal of Radiation Research and Radiation Processing, 2023, 41(4): 040601

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    Paper Information

    Category: Research Articles

    Received: Mar. 1, 2023

    Accepted: Mar. 21, 2023

    Published Online: Sep. 21, 2023

    The Author Email:

    DOI:10.11889/j.1000-3436.2023-0016

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