In order to meet the high precision demand for UAV carrier landing and improve the prediction accuracy of carrier motion, the deck motion prediction technique was studied.In order to fit the carrier pitching motion, the shaping filter system of rational form with introduced white noise was used as input.The Kalman filtering theory was used to predict the pitching motion of the aircraft carrier deck.On which basis, and by using the prediction results of the deck heaving motion and roll motion, prediction to the ideal touchdown point vertical motion was realized.The simulation results show that, this method can effectively predict the aircraft carrier deck pitching motion and the ideal touchdown point vertical motion 3 second ahead of time, which is of great significance for improving the safety of the carrier landing.